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Milan , September 18, 2014 – 17:20
After the OECD, the IMF also Italy international is pessimistic on the economy. The IMF has revised down its estimates of the Italian GDP in 2014, indicating a decline of 0.1%. For 2015 accelerated to 1.1 per cent. Last July, the IMF had indicated to Italy rose by 0.3% this year. “The risks remain anchored to the bottom ‘, warn economists Fund, citing” geopolitical tensions, the possibility of stagnation and low inflation. ” In the analysis of experts in Washington, growth is likely to remain around 1% until the end of 2019: The estimates are in fact to 1.3% in 2016, an increase of 1.2% in 2017, a + 1% in 2018 and an increase of 1% in 2019.
Pensions at risk
According to the institute led by France’s Christine Lagarde,” would achieve significant savings difficult without action on the big pension expenditure. The Italian pension expenditure is the highest in Europe, representing approximately 30% of the total, “while for education and other social spending non-pension disbursement is very limited.
Well the labor reform
Unemployment in Italy this year will rise to the highest level since the post-war period, to 12.6% from 12.2% in 2013 For the IMF, unemployment will remain in double digits until 2017 (12.0% in 2015, 11.3 % in 2016, 10.5% in 2017). The IMF may revise downwards its estimates again on Italy in the World Economic Outlook of October. He said Kenneth Kang, head of the International Monetary Fund’s annual mission in Italy. Meanwhile, however, the Fund “supports” the goals of ‘”ambitious” reform of the labor market ordered by the President of the Council Matteo Renzi, said Kang. The expert explained the problem that the nation has to solve, that of a “large gap” between permanent employees and fixed-term contracts. The IMF said Kang, “supports” the idea of introducing a “single contract labor protections increasing gradually as a way to close that gap and provide incentives for companies to invest on workers.” At the same time, the expert explains, “there ‘need to make wages more decentralized to company level. This is important because, with better wages in line with productivity, it provides a signal to businesses and workers in order to allocate resources to the most productive areas of business. ”
Stie negative OECD also
On Monday came the cold shower was the OECD. According to the organization with headquarters in Paris, our country will also close the 2014 recession: GDP will contract this year by 0.4% after the 1.8% recorded in the 2013 Essentially it will be even stagnation in 2015, when but the GDP will grow only 0.1%. Italy will be the only major economy in the area this year to mark a trend in the negative.
18 September 2014 | 17:20
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