The recovery will not be. At least in the OECD after 2014 and Confindustria of Italy’s GDP estimate for the minus sign this year is the Minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan to turn off the last hopes. Of course, the numbers of the government will only be seen with the note that will update Def October 1 but the minister puts his hands forward, admitting that there is a risk that this will be a year of recession. Of course, the negative number will be “much smaller than the past ‘and’ ascend as early as next year, and increasingly the years following,” but Italy, in 2014, is not yet out of the doldrums of the crisis. This complicates the path of the law of Stability, (while according to the calculations of Confindustria 2014 will close at -0.4% for 2015 and 15.9 billion only serve to confirm existing commitments) will be “very difficult” to be finalized, said Padoan guest Porta a Porta, although the government will do everything “to find resources sufficient and credible.” Without tax increases (thus averted the dreaded VAT increase) but through the spending review which will, as also said the premier Matteo Renzi, not only cuts but also “reallocation” of resources: “When we are committed to re-examine 20 800 billion are barely touching the 3% of spending, “and” it may be that some items are allocated in a different way. ” Moreover, says the owner of Via XX Settembre, these are a $ 20 billion figure that “hangs in the air,” but “will not be all of the spending review,” which, as indicated by the prime minister, will serve also for the reform of social safety nets. In any case, again also ensures Padoan, it will be “a spending program targeted efficiency,” without prejudice “quality and quantity of services” and especially “without social cuts.” Meanwhile, the MEF begins to do its part (but by all, said Padoan, there is the “spirit of cooperation”) and commenced its spending review with “the immediate reduction of 139 executive positions not general (from 712 573) “and the deletion of 10 regional offices from February 2015 Resources for the stability law, Padoan said,” are in large part by spending cuts “(and” by the ministries can take a lot of money ‘) and’ efficiency on the revenue side. ” But among the chapters to raise funds there are also “fight against tax evasion and significant returns from ‘demolition of the debt burden.” And just from the spread could get a big hand: the decline in the differential with the German Bund should bring “a benefit of around 5 billion this year,” the minister announces, however, inviting not to take for granted that the relationship continues to go down. Among other things, the savings on debt can give help on the front of the correction of the public finances, but it can hardly be used as structural coverage, what we try to confirm the bonus of 80 €, which, Padoan said, “it will be made permanent because financed by spending cuts permanent. ” Bonus reiterates that the prime minister of wanting to try to extend or on behalf of families or businesses, “at least in one of two directions.” The main contribution to growth will, however, hang up the reforms, not just those already implemented but also those of ‘a thousand days (we have a huge program, maybe too big, Padoan told German newspaper Handeslblatt). Just those reforms that the EU expects, as confirmed by the spokesperson of Commissioner for Economic Affairs Jyrki Katainen, Simon O’Connor, noting that “in Italy there is no risk of the Troika,” but that in the assessment of the stability law , we will also look at the “debt remains high and will be a central issue.”
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