economic estimates
Milan , September 30, 2014 – 20:57
” The macroeconomic situation is markedly reduced compared to Def April both in terms of growth, which is negative, which in terms of employment. ” Are not encouraging words of the Minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, the aim of the Council of Ministers who fired the update note at Def, the Economic and Financial Planning Document. The GDP will drop by 0.3% this year and rise 0.6% in 2015, while the deficit / GDP ratio will rise to “dangerous” 3% this year before dropping to 2.9% next year. The debt / GDP ratio will amount to 131.6% in 2014, but will rise to 133.4% in 2015 We are in a situation that calls exceptional circumstances, “notes Padoan, so it is” legitimate to imagine a slowing down of the process of adjustment structural balance, which will take place in a positive measure but reduced compared to what is imagined in the final in April ».But you exit out of the stakes set by Europe: with the deficit / GDP ratio of 3% is” fully complied with the fundamental constraint of ‘ Europe, “says Padoan. “We are responding adequately to requests» Brussels warns Padoan, explaining that after delivering Def the EU Commission, October 15 will also be sent to the law of stability on which the EU then “express its evaluation.” But “there will be no additional maneuver,” reiterates the Secretary to the Presidency of the Council, Graziano Delrio.
On the negative side, however, do not push the government clarifies Padoan, to withdraw from the soak taken. “The government continues to make a considerable effort on the path of growth and stability,” says the minister. And then in the Law of stability “there will be a confirmation of the 80 euro, strengthening the wedge cut corporate tax, important resources for social safety nets in the broader sense, that will give further impetus to the reform of the labor market.” Where are the resources? “Social safety nets will be covered -assicura the minister – as other voices out, by a combination of revenues from the spending review, by some measures on the revenue side, that does not mean tax increases but tax expenditures, and the use margins of the budget within limits “.Even the gradual overcoming of the internal stability pact will allow you to unlock resources, ensures the minister:” This will lead local authorities to have accounts in balance, so it will be a significant improvement in the quality of local finance » . A news greeted with pleasure ANCI, the association of Commons: “It ‘s the real key.” While privatization does not “make cash” for now, as hoped: they will be “lower than expected (ie 0.7% of GDP) – alerts Padoan – but will recover next year.”
Estimates
In the light of these elements, returns to Italy a year, to 2017, the goal of a balanced budget in structural terms , ie net of the cycle and one-off. “As of 2016, it will resume the pace of reduction of 0.5% in 2017 to get to a balanced budget.” The government has decided to extend the time path of fiscal consolidation so as not to weaken an economy plunged into recession for the third time since 2008 But Padoan also admits that the severance pay in payroll is a topic under discussion, but they do not speak Def in the Economic and Financial Planning Document.
September 30, 2014 | 20:57
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