Italy will also close the 2014 recession. The government, as expected, lower estimates of April and with the update note of the document of Economics and Finance (Def) indicates that the GDP will close this year to -0.3% (Istat and meanwhile provides that the third quarter will have a minus sign) to return to growth, to 0.6% in 2015 Fully complied with, however, said the Minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan at the end of the CDM, which approved the note, the “essential constraint” of 3 %. The deficit / GDP ratio will amount this year in fact precisely on the edge of this threshold (3%) to fall slightly to 2.9% next year.
The government, with the laws currently in force, estimates the ratio to 2.2%, but sets the programmatic deficit to 2.9%. This would give it the edge initiative to stimulate the economy for the next year. “No additional maneuver” for 2014, again provides the Secretary to the Prime Graziano Delrio. But since “the framework macroecnomico deteriorated ‘is’ lawful’, however, said Padoan, invoke the” exceptional circumstances “already required by EU rules to” slow down “the structural adjustment of the budget and postpone” 2017 “the achievement of a balanced budget provided for in the Fiscal Compact. Of course, we must wait the judgment of Brussels, but assures the minister, with the commission, which has already been sent the update note, “there will be regular dialogue with Brussels, with both the outgoing committee and with the incoming one.” And then a judgment that will come “on the stability law,” after October 15.
The stability law will still be growth-oriented, with the confirmation of 80 euro and a “strengthening of the cutting wedge for business” in ways that are still being defined. So how is the study hypothesis launched by the Premier Matteo Renzi to make available the severance pay in payroll, a “topic under discussion” cut short Padoan. There will be however certain resources to start overcoming the internal stability pact for local authorities. And also ‘sufficient resources’ to start’ effectively the reform of the labor market. The covers for the new shock absorbers, said the minister, they will come “from a set of items, from spending review, and measures on the revenue side, that does not mean higher taxes but efficentamento of revenue, tax expenditur to speak and the use margins of the budget. ” The spending review in particular, stressed Padoan, “it will be thorough and will serve to enhance the coverage of the tax cuts permanent and will make further credible operation.”
The debt is seen climbing to 131.7 to 133.6 this year and next year, partly as a result of a privatization plan that is slow. This year, “we will do less than expected (ie 0.7% of GDP) – but admits Padoan will recover next year.” The exit from the recession appears to Italy still far away: also Istat, the monthly note on the economy of the country, to certify that in the third quarter there will be a “new decline” in GDP. This is due not only to the difficulties of our industry but also the fragility of domestic demand and weak consumer spending. And with the economy “compressed by the difficult conditions of the labor market ‘, the locomotive-country again. In short, says the Mayor, “the current weakness of the economic cycle is expected to continue in the third quarter.” In particular, the labor market, “the vacancy rate remains at very low levels, underlining the continued shortage of available jobs that seems to become a structural feature.”
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