At the International Monetary Fund like “ambitious agenda” ‘s premier Matteo Renzi . “The proposed changes in the labor market, the judicial system, the public sector and on the electoral law are important tools to support future growth,” , say the economists of Washington in the report drawn up at the end of the second survey Article IV but stressed the “strong political resistance” incumbent on the judicial front, and on that of the spending review. ‘Get significant savings would be difficult without action on the big pension expenditure – say experts IMF – l in Italian pension expenditure is the highest in Europe, representing approximately 30% of the total “. For education and other non-pension social spending, however, the outlay is very limited.
Do not pull at all a good air. Now Renzi should do well to deal with the numbers of analysts who Monetary Fund downgraded estimates for pil Italian in 2014, indicating a decline of 0.1%. Last July had indicated to Italy rose by 0.3% this year. “The risks remain anchored to the bottom” , warn economists Fund citing “geopolitical tensions, the possibility of stagnation and low inflation” . “In the first six months of the year the GDP contracted but the signs of the companies and the robust exports suggest a gradual increase in economic activity in the coming quarters” , says the IMF providing for an acceleration in 2015 thanks to the improvement of the situation of the credit and the effect of monetary easing measures adopted by the ECB. “Even in a context of very sluggish growth – is observed in the relationship – inflation has fallen well below 1% and unemployment reached 12.3%” . And if “sovereign spreads have declined” , credit conditions remain tight, “especially for small and medium-sized enterprises” and “non-performing debts continue to increase, “. The IMF estimates the unemployment rate to 12.6% this year and 12% in 2015 and recommended that a “special attention” against regional disparities. The crisis has affected different Italian regions unevenly: the GDP fell by 6.7% in the North in 2007-2013 and recorded a reduction of up to 13.6% in the South while the Unemployment in the South has risen by four percentage points more than in the north, with a productivity gap of 60%.
hard to Italy “exit balance sheet recession “, that is, the recession generated by the budget balances, and ” the outlook remains uncertain “. The International Monetary Fund defines the structural reforms “essential” to boost growth. “Tight credit conditions, weak capital of companies and rigidity deeply rooted continue to weigh on domestic demand” , warn economists to Washington by observing how the high level of public debt amplifies the challenges, making the country even more vulnerable with respect to external shocks. According to the IMF, the slowness of the judicial system is one of the main factors weighing on the weakness of the enterprise system, restricting investment, increasing the cost of credit and discouraging hiring. “It takes more than 1,000 days to enforce a contract in Italy” , says the IMF pointing to the reform of the judicial system among those with priority to the fight against corruption that is “a serious problem” . “Without significant reforms growth is likely to remain low” , remarks urging the IMF “profound structural changes to push the potential for development, to ensure the recovery and to resolve issues related to ‘debt overhang “.
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