IMF revises downward the GDP. “We need new maneuver 8000000000 … – The Messenger

IMF revises downward the GDP. "We need new maneuver 8000000000 … – The Messenger

The Italian economy is struggling to emerge from recession, but the risks are still tilted to the downside, also because of the geopolitical tensions. This is the scenario painted in dark colors from the International Monetary Fund, in a report issued following the discussions in the annual directory of the mission in Italy.

The organization of Washington has revised downwards its forecasts for economic growth in Italy. In 2014 predicts a decline in GDP of 0.1%, while for 2015 has confirmed the estimate of 1.1%. In previous forecasts, which dated back to the World Economic Outlook of April, was estimated growth of 0.6% in 2014 A cut to the IMF, the OECD less dramatic that, in recent days, saw Italy as the black sheep of the G7.

The Italian debt will rise in 2014 to 136.4% of GDP in 2014, up to the tocacre 135.4 in 2015 before falling in the years to come. Bad news for the unemployment rate, according to the IMF this year will rise to 12.6% from 12.2% in 2013 and then for the organization of Washington, and serves more decisive action to create jobs .

“A further adjustment in respect of the plans of the authorities (up to 0.5% of GDP, depending on the strength of the recovery) would help to achieve a small structural surplus in 2015,” the IMF said then (or 0.5% of the GDP amounts to a correction of about 7.5000000000-8000000000). “Conditional recovery, a modest structural surplus next year it would be appropriate to bring down the debt faster. In the short term, fiscal policy – says the IMF – has to achieve the delicate balance between putting the debt on a declining path and help the economic recovery. A further adjustment in respect of the plans of the authorities (up to 0.5% of GDP, depending on the strength of the recovery) would help to achieve a small structural surplus in 2015 if growth were to be weaker than expected, a slower recovery – but still enough to reduce debt – would be appropriate. “

The IMF, however, welcomes the reforms proposed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. The labor reform in the right direction, says the IMF, which explains that Italy must “move quickly on reforms.” Well the idea of ​​a “single contract of employment ‘. “With 70% of new fixed-term contracts, further flexibility at the margins does little to reduce duality and push investments.” The proposed changes on the labor market, the judicial system, the public sector and read the electoral represent important steps to support growth, adds the institution headed by Christine Lagarde.