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The Italians can only hope that, this time, the OECD economists, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, their predictions are wrong. What is that regularly occurred in the past. Yeah, the job of reading the future of the economy is not easy, especially today with the complexity of the macroeconomic framework that shortens the life of any econometric computation model, so the only paper that remains in the hands of the citizens is that even in ‘ genuine turnaround in the estimates of 2014 GDP revised down: -0.4% compared to 0.5% last May to maintain the tradition of a clear gap between what is expected and what actually then produced by the economy. The crystal ball of magicians OECD in fact already beginning to falter in 2011 In May of that year’s GDP predicted by economists in Paris was 1.2%.
It was the year of the crisis the spread between BTP-Bund which forced the international institute to revise downward in November, the same index: was brought to a + 0 , 7%. But even then, a few months after the end of the year, the reduction was not enough. The actual GDP stood at a meager 0.4%. In short, a flop remarkable given that the last revision was wrong by nearly 50%. The following year the performance of the analysts, however well paid, the organization was not a model of great precision. In May of 2012, in fact, the wealth produced in Italy was given a decrease of 1.7%. Since negative but optimistic because at the end of the year marked a sound statistical indicators -2.4% in the total production of the company in Italy. Do not, however, without going to a -2.4% to -2.2% in September proper in November. In short, a bit ‘of indecision that has not moved one iota the final result.
Better, in terms of the objective approach between the prediction and the actual data, in 2013 the program has been forecasting economists in Paris have probably added more complex variables from the statistical point of view. And that has rewarded them. The estimate of GDP in May stood at -1.8% exactly as it was written in the statistical documents at the end of last year. In November 2013, however, an excess of pessimism in the last estimate before the final was pejorative: -1.9%, the OECD wrote. Unlike the case this year. The initial optimism of May when you put in the account an increase of 0.5% Italian product, it has gone to since yesterday, which marks a less than 0.4%. One thing that has not a little depressed moods business and, above all, negative only for Italy among the G7 countries. Clear that expectations are suddenly passes in the country despite the negative ads and 80 euro for Renzi. So this time the inversion of the cycle and the minus sign in the Italian economy is all there. The expectation of a new error estimated by the OECD this time it is the wish of the Italians and the government. In terms of estimates Standard & amp; Poor’s is more forgiving: the Italian economy remain at the stake in 2014.
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