Bankitalia cuts growth forecast: 0.4% GDP in 2014 – The Messenger

Bankitalia cuts growth forecast: 0.4% GDP in 2014 – The Messenger

Yellow light for the economy according to the economic bulletin of January signed by Bank of Italy.

At the center of the table projections that prefigure the Italian economy growth “ low ” This year, more sustained next: in the central scenario would be according to the bulletin “ around 0.4 and 1.2 per cent, respectively. ” “ A more favorable development activity – says Bank of Italy – it would have if the price of oil were to remain on the values ​​recorded in the last days.”

Risks. There are risks to economic activity that “may result from the heightening of tensions in international financial markets, the worsening political situation in Greece and the crisis in Russia, as well as to the economic slowdown in emerging economies ». And there is the issue of employment with a recovery still considered too fragile.

Consumption. “consumption gradually acquire force – explains Bankitalia – due to the recovery of disposable income in part connected with the measures included in the stability law to support low and average incomes. The savings rate of households, rose in 2014 to 10 percent (from 9.1 in 2013), would arrive in the period 2015-16 to 10.5, but remained still lower values ​​than those observed before the financial crisis’

Employment. Employment in Italy “has grown in the third quarter, but preliminary data for October and November point to a fragile recovery in employment,” says the Economic Bulletin of the Bank of Italy. In the summer months of 2014, it is stressed, “the number of employees increased, albeit slightly; after three quarters of stagnation the number of hours worked has returned to grow both in industry excluding construction both in private services.

However, the unemployment rate rose, driven by the increase in the activity rate ». Employment recovery remains fragile: business expectations about the evolution of labor demand in the first months of 2015 continue to be negative.

Global growth. “Economic activity has accelerated sharply in the United States, growing beyond expectations, analysts continue. The outlook in the short and medium term for the world economy, however, remain uncertain, the ongoing weakness in the euro area and Japan, for the prolongation of the slowdown in China and the sharp slowdown in Russia, “says Bank of Italy. “The sharp fall in oil prices, widening of the offer is determined both by weak demand, can help sustain growth, but it is not without risks to the financial stability of the exporting countries,” concludes the report.