History Article
Close
This article was published January 16, 2015 at 15:45.
The last modified on 16 January 2015 to 17:40 hours.
The Bank of Italy estimates the size of the GDP in 2015 which will see a “modest growth” : + 0.4% vs. + 1.3% of the estimates in July, while in 2016 will accelerate to +1.2 percent. You read it in the economic bulletin that “remains large uncertainty” and “crucial will be the strength of the recovery in investment.” For 2014, the estimate is a -0.4% of GDP. With a note: a Quantitative easing “aggressive” by the ECB would have a positive effect on the Italian GDP of + 0.5% in the period 2015-2016. Via Nazionale certifies then deflation that has plunged Italy, with a change in the index of consumer prices marginally negative this year (-0.2%). Employment recovery remains fragile despite “in the summer of 2014 the number of employed has increased, albeit slightly,” and companies’ expectations about the evolution of labor demand in the first months of 2015 continue to be negative.
Bankitalia GDP: -0.4% in 2014, 0.4% in 2015, 1.2% in 2016
On the whole of 2014, based on the indicators available so far, the Bank of Italy estimates that the GDP of Italy has been reduced by 0.4% (-1.9 in 2013). The economic activity to return to growth in a moderate way earlier this year, only to strengthen slightly in subsequent quarters: growth would reach 0.4% this year and 1.2% next. At the end of the projection horizon, GDP would stand still over seven percentage points below the level of 2007. The economic activity would be supported by monetary policy, by the drop in oil prices, by cutting the tax wedge; still weak investment and fragile prospects of the euro. Risks to economic activity may result from the “worsening of tensions in international financial markets, the worsening political situation in Greece and the crisis in Russia, as well as the economic slowdown in emerging economies.”
Stability Law has avoided recession longer
For the Bank of Italy in Italian fiscal consolidation remains a key objective. “The government – according Via Nazionale – the Stability Law, adjusted the pace of fiscal consolidation of the economic situation.”
Inflation 2015: -0.2% “aggressive measures against deflation”
Italy will be in deflation also in 2015. According to the Economic Bulletin of the Bank of Italy, the change in consumer prices, “fell to 0.2% on average of 2014, would be marginally negative this year (-0.2%), affected largely by the sharp fall in oil prices. Net of energy and food price increases would be lower, or 0.6%. ” Inflation adds Via Nazionale, then it should remain below 1% even in 2016 (0.7%). Hence the need for “aggressive measures of monetary support ‘from Frankfurt that” may help counter the downward pressure on prices and weak economic activity in the area. ”
Shooting employment remains fragile
The recovery in employment in Italy remains fragile despite “in the summer of 2014 the number of employed has increased, albeit slightly» . The expectations of firms – continues the Bulletin of Bank of Italy – about the evolution of labor demand in the first months of 2015 continue to be negative.
Increase consumption but investments not allocated
In Italy consumption levels increase, “but investments are not yet distributed.” This is what underscores the Bank of Italy in the economic bulletin. In recent quarters’ consumption started to grow a limited extent, in line with the trend of disposable income supported by the measures taken by the Government. ” Their contribution to the growth of the economy, however, “was offset by a decline in investment, held back by a large margin of spare capacity, by the high uncertainty about demand prospects and difficulties building.”
Improves condition credit to businesses
According to the most recent surveys the conditions of supply of credit to businesses are improved, although it does not loosen the close of financing for small businesses. Bankitalia also highlights how the average interest rates on new loans have declined gradually, although still higher than those of the euro area of about 30 basis points for businesses and households.
Debt towards 132% of GDP in 2014
In terms of public finances, finally, Bamitalia indicates that net debt remains close to the ceiling of 3 percent of GDP, but the relationship between the debt and the Product rose by about four percentage points, reaching near 132%. In late November the government debt amounted to 2.16 trillion; in December, the debt should be strongly decreased, due in the general Pa and the drop in liquid Treasury.
© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Permalink
No comments:
Post a Comment