Bankitalia size estimates of the GDP, “modest recovery” – AGI – Agenzia Journalistic Italy

Bankitalia size estimates of the GDP, "modest recovery" – AGI – Agenzia Journalistic Italy

20:20 January 16, 2015

(AGI) – Rome, January 16 – Economic growth in Italy will be ‘modest in 2015 and slightly more’ sustained next year. ‘As expected, the Bank of Italy in its economic bulletin.

“Our projections for the Italian economy foreshadow a modest growth this year, more ‘supported the prossimom – reads the report – in the central scenario would be around 0.4 and 1.2 percent, respectively. ” According to Via Nazionale, however, “remains large uncertainty around these values. Sara ‘crucial intensity’ of the recovery in investment spending; a rapid improvement in demand prospects and financial condition could increase it, despite the high degree of ability ‘unused production. A trend more’ favorable attivita ‘you would have if the price of oil were to remain on the values ​​recorded in the last days “.

‘Fiscal developments and’ consistent with a net debt close to 3 per cent of GDP. The lack of growth leads to an increase in the debt / GDP ratio continues to rise.
“In the first eleven months of 2014, the government borrowing requirement, net of privatization receipts, and ‘amounted to 73.1 billion, 19 , 6 fewer than in the corresponding period last year, “reports the Bank of Italy.”

Overall, Bankitalia adds, “the available data are consistent with a net debt close to 3 per cent of GDP “. As for the debt / GDP , via Nazionale recalls that” at the end of November, the government debt amounted to 2.16 trillion: in December, the debt should be strongly decreased, due in the general government public and to the decline in availability ‘liquid Treasury.
Altogether you can’ assess that in the year the ratio of debt to GDP has risen by about four percentage points , placing in vicinity ‘of the 132 percent . Faced with a substantially unchanged nominal GDP (the denominator of the ratio), the variation in the incidence primarily reflected the increase in liabilities’. There have affected financial occurrences attributable to net borrowing and expenditure linked to disbursements for trade payables previous current account (estimated at over 10 billion), the increase in availability ‘l iquid Treasury (8.8 billion), and support the euro area countries in difficulty ‘(4.7 billion); in the opposite direction, the change in nominal debt would be contained by the issue margins (8.7 billion). “

As for employment in Italy and ‘grown in third quarter but preliminary data for October and November indicate a fragile recovery in employment .
Via Nazionale stresses that “in the summer of 2014 the number of employed and ‘increased, albeit slightly; after three quarters of stagnation the number of hours worked and ‘returned to growth both in industry excluding construction both in private services. This’ notwithstanding – he adds – the unemployment rate and ‘rose, driven by the increase in the rate of activity’. Employment recovery remains fragile, as indicated by the preliminary data in October and November: corporate expectations about the evolution of labor demand in the first months of 2015 continue to be negative “. (AGI).