Bankitalia size estimates of the GDP, “Shooting modest” – AGI – Agenzia Journalistic Italy

Bankitalia size estimates of the GDP, "Shooting modest" – AGI – Agenzia Journalistic Italy

15:21 January 16, 2015

(AGI) – Rome, January 16 – Bankitalia size estimates of GDP growth for this year : forecasts are revised downwards and pass from 1.3% in July to 0 , 4%. “Our projections for the Italian economy foreshadow a modest growth this year, more ‘sustained next – reads the report – in the central scenario would be around 0.4%.

Next year, growth will be ‘rather more’ sustained and that means’ by 1.2%. For the Via Nazionale, however, “is still large uncertainty around these values. Sara ‘crucial intensity’ of the recovery in investment spending; a rapid improvement in demand prospects and financial condition could increase it, despite the high degree of capacity ‘unused production. A trend more ‘favorable attivita’ you would have if the price of oil were to remain on the values ​​recorded in the last days. “

According to the main, reports the Bank of Italy,” a turnaround attivita ‘production could occur in the first part of the year; I would, however, a necessary condition a return of capital accumulation of positive values. “” According to our estimates the probability ‘of a turning point in the early months of the year would stand at around 50 percent. “

Employment in Italy , always supports Bankitalia, and ‘grew in the third quarter but preliminary data for October and November point to a fragile recovery in employment. Via Nazionale stresses that “in the summer of 2014 the number of employed and ‘increased, albeit slightly; after three quarters of stagnation the number of hours worked and ‘returned to growth both in industry excluding construction both in private services. This’ notwithstanding – he adds – and the unemployment rate ‘rose , driven by the increase in the rate of activity’. Employment recovery remains fragile, as indicated by the preliminary data in October and November: companies’ expectations about the evolution of labor demand in the first months of 2015 continue to be negative. “Consumer prices in Italy will be is still negative in 2015 than in 2016, provides finally the Bank of Italy.