MILAN – Wall Street returns to smell of a tech bubble, with the Nasdaq that returns the highest since millennium, when the world was in the running of the Web. For the first time in almost fifteen years the list of technological US stocks has exceeded 5,000 points. The last time I touched such heights was March 27, 2000, while the historical record intraday (5132.52 points) dates back to March 10, 2000. A movement that, combined with the dizzying valuations that are returning to circulate among startups San Francisco and the like, also returns to ignite fears of excessive speculation, driven among other things also by the excess liquidity that the interventions of the central banks have pumped in the market.
And on the subject of central banks, investors await the start of the Quantitative easing Mario Draghi: this is the central element of the week the markets, which also has a number of macroeconomic data of the highest order. The publication is the match today, with the decline in unemployment in Italy, the final data on GDP, inflation in the Eurozone recovery and the positive trend of the indexes on the manufacturing PMI (the agenda). Yet all investors look to the ECB, which will gather Thursday in Nicosia (Cyprus) the board to review the economic outlook and probably announce the latest technical details to launch the plan purchase of 1.14 trillion of securities, at least until September 2016. Not is a passage of little account. As noted by many analysts to Bloomberg , are many things to know about 60 billion monthly purchases of the ECB.
As will be divided between the various instruments available (generally thought that 40- 45 billion are government bonds), with that mechanism will be rounded up in the market (on the secondary or auction style Fed)? These are issues that – if they find satisfactory answers – could throw some ‘of confusion among investors, as happened for example to the debut of the Qe of the Central Bank of Japan in 2013.
Looking forward to these developments, lists EU treat with caution, also influenced by profit taking after the recent sessions: Milan in the red of 0.18% after a morning in positive territory, Frankfurt swings on equal, London moves back of 0.2% and Paris was down 0.8%. In recent times, the actions of the Old Continent have been rewarded by record inflows of capital in the wake of announcements of Dragons: the Euro Stoxx 50 rose by 14% in 2015 (never a start to the year was more sprint), while stock funds have collected 11 billion euro by investors.
Among the individual titles of Business Plaza, you look at Carige struggling to make money and then squirts after the entry of Malacalza with a share of 10 , 5%, which was acquired by the Foundation. Of note is the debut OVS , the chain of clothing stores; Telecom holds, that does not seem concerned about the risk of blow on the copper network. The spread between ten-year BTPs and German counterparts stationed in updating the minimum 98 points from May 2010; the yield on Italian ten-year bonds hovered around 1.33%, now very close to those of the Spanish counterparts.
On the macro recording progress index SMEs on the manufacturing sector , which anticipate the economic cycle being built interviewing purchasing managers: the Italian one rises above expectations at 51, 9 points. For the first time in five months is above 50 points, the threshold that separates contraction from expansion. In progress even Germany, with 51.1 points. The unemployment Italian drops to surprise even in January to 12.6% and also improves the Eurozone, while the Istat confirmed the third year of recession in 2014 for Italy. By Eurostat flash estimate, it collects the improvement of price dynamics: in February, the annual inflation rate is expected to share -0.3% compared to -0.6% in January. Therefore remains deflation, although Draghi welcome a slight improvement of the framework. In the background, there is the greek puzzle to be solved by the Spanish Finance Minister De Guindos about a plan 30-50 billion euro as a third r escue program for Athens.
Wall Street , recovering from a February to spur beaten, as mentioned opens uncertain and then improves considerably: while closing the markets of the Old Continent the Dow Jones advancing by 0.7%, in line with the Nasdaq (+ 0.75% to share 5 thousand points) and the S & amp; P 500 added 0.35%. In the US you register the + 0.3% of personal income in January, slightly below expectations, and the decline of 0.2% of the costs. To note also the decrease of Ism Manufacturing , which fell to 52.9 points in February, below expectations.
The investors take positions in anticipation of the launch of the ECB Qe and l ‘ € closed at $ 1.1197, after having advanced to a maximum of $ 1.1240 session. The solid data on the US labor market last Friday and spread the cut in interest rates in China at the weekend (-25 basis points to 5.35%) push to buy the greenback, which records the top for 11 years in comparison to a basket of other major currencies.
Closing rising in the morning, for the Tokyo Stock Exchange with the Nikkei 225 index which closed up 0.15% to 18826.88 points, after peaking at an altitude of 18939.17. Positive surprises in the data on Chinese manufacturing activity released by HSBC that reading in February rose to 50.7 points from 49.7 points in January. A survey confirming the signs of recovery in manufacturing activity of China and exceeds 50.1 points estimated by analysts (above 50 points is being expanded). The Markit PMI index on manufacturing Japanese in February instead of salt to 51.6 points compared to the flash reading of 51.5.
oil WTI back positive after a Cushing, in Oklahoma, where WTI is stored, Genscape reveals a rise of 1.4 million barrels of oil reserves, lower than expected. The WTI advances so in the box 50 dollars a barrel. Slight increase for the ‘ Gold in the beginning of the week. The metal for immediate delivery increased 0.7% to $ 1,221 an ounce.
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