The Imf still cutting growth estimates for Italy. Box-to-Gdp Usa – Il Sole 24 Ore

WASHINGTON – The international monetary Fund has revised downwards its growth forecast for Italy, bringing them 0.8% for this year and 0.9% next year, a filing by 0.1% in both cases compared to the scenario of July. The figures are broadly in line with the latest estimates, also revised downwards, submitted by the Government in the Def.
Italy is one of the few Countries to experience a decline in the price of the forecast. The reduction is affected to the United States, which the economists and the Imf now expect that it will grow dell’1,6% in 2016 (0.6% less than in July) and 2.2% in 2017 (0.3% less). The slower growth in the Usa and in some other advanced Countries, including Italy and France, it is compensated by the slight improvement in the emerging Countries. Overall, the forecast for world growth remain unchanged in comparison with three months ago, to 3.1% and 3.4%, respectively.

to ESTIMATES by the IMF
Forecasts for the growth of Gdp in % (Source: Imf)

once Again, the Fund urges the authorities of economic policy to a more decisive action to prevent the low growth will become chronic. "Without action from certain of the policies to support economic activity in the short and in the longer term – says the chief economist of the Imf, and Maurice Obstfeld, in presenting the "World Economic Outlook" – insufficient growth to current levels runs the risk of self-perpetuating, through the economic and political forces negative that is causing". A recognition that the disappointing performance of the economy is an important factor in the emergence of populist movements and anti-globalisation in several of the most important areas, including the United States and Europe. "The growth has been too low for too long – look, Etc – and in many Countries, its benefits have reached too few people, with political repercussions that probably deprimeranno global growth further."

The bank, friend of the Imf for Dragons

Learn more

Among the risks that could "derail" the recovery in 2017 and in subsequent years, risks that may interact and aggravate the situation, the Fund lists an uneasy transition in China, a further sharp fall in the prices of raw materials, a restriction of global financial conditions or a sharp increase in the barriers to trade. Then there is the danger of a deepening of geopolitical tensions, which peggiorerebbero the humanitarian crisis that was already underway in the Middle east and Africa.
once Again, the Imf notes that the monetary policy should remain accommodative, has been left too much alone in supporting the application and that there is a need for the support of fiscal policy and structural reforms, promised by the G-20 summit in Brisbane in 2014, but that came to fruition in a measure unsatisfactory.

as regards Italy, the impulse to growth will be almost exclusively from domestic demand. The report focuses among other things on the vulnerability of the banking system, although note that there has finally been a slight recovery of the credit. The fiscal policy will be slightly expansionary, note the Imf, which provides for the deficit (estimates still do not take against of the Def) 2.5% of gross domestic product in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017. The public debt will rise this year to reach 133.2% of gdp and next year to 133,4%. Unemployment, in the forecasts of the Fund, is likely to remain the highest in the G-7 Countries, 11.5% in 2016 and 11.2% in 2017.

© Reproduction reserved