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This article was published on 15 September 2014 at 11:04.
The last change is the 15 September 2014 at 14:05.
Demand is weak and deflation risk. The macroeconomic scenario Eurozone leaves little room for optimism and Italy is the last of the class among the countries of the G-7. This is the analysis of the OECD in Interim Economic Assessment, the interim report published today.
The rejection of Italy
The Organization expects for 2014 a decline of the Italian GDP by 0.4% against 0.5% indicated in ‘ Outlook semiannual last May. Also for 2015, the review is clear: the estimates are now aiming to + 0.1% vs. 1.1% predicted last spring. Those involving the Italian GDP revisions are heavier than the ratio (which is an update of the Outlook twice a year) and Italy is the only country in recession among the big names. The OECD expects a “solid recovery” in the United States but for the eurozone proposes a critical framework: growth in 2014 will not exceed 0.8% in 2015 and the acceleration will be modest: the GDP will grow by only 1, 1 percent. As for the individual countries, GDP is expected to increase in Germany by 1.5% both this year and next, while in France is expected to be 0.4% in 2014 and 1% in 2015, “The global recovery – warns the institution – is inadequate. Potential growth has slowed and inequality have increased. At the same time, external imbalances and threats to financial stability are still present. “
Great Britain the positive exception
The OECD has cut the outlook of all the countries of the G-7, with the exception of Great Britain (revised estimates to increase) and Canada (unchanged). The British, however, will be the only major economy to register a growth rate of over 3% (+ 3.1%).
The recipe suggests that the OECD is always the same: “flexibility and reforms,” the only ways that could lead to the revival of domestic demand and thus a more vigorous growth. The organization also returns to Paris to ask the ECB to launch a program of quantitative easing, which is a solid plan for the purchase of government bonds, which for now Eurotower not intend to do.
Among the emerging countries’ OECD leaves unchanged at 7.4% forecast for China, enhances those for India (5.7%) and size drastically to 0.3% higher than in Brazil, which remains the sick man of the Brics.
Standard & amp; Poors’: still no effect from the stimulus measures
Even Standard and Poor’s has cut the estimate of the Italian GDP in 2014, bringing it to zero from 0.5% forecast in June. It’s what we read in a report by the assessment of creditworthiness, which states that Italian GDP at the end of the second quarter has fallen 0.3% in the knock-on effect (carryover) from the first part of ‘year, and that is, how would the average growth in the year if GDP were to remain unchanged in the third and fourth quarters. This is the “broader review ‘between the main eurozone countries, says S & amp; P, explaining that the knock-on effect throughout the second quarter is the most negative among the big European countries (all the others are in positive territory ). “Our previous assessments – writes S & amp; P – have somewhat overestimated the effect of three factors,” first of all the stimulus measures announced in March by the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, and that “to date there have been no effect on spending patterns “of the Italians.
Renzi: I talk about it tomorrow in Parliament
No comment for now from the premier. “On these issues, if you agree, tomorrow I’ll make a long speech in Parliament and will enter into the merits of the proposals and ideas. I avoid talking about here now. ” So Matteo Renzi from Palermo responded to reporters who asked him to comment on the judgment of the rating agency Standard & amp; Poor’s.
Shooting Eurozone in doubt
Standard & amp; Poor’s has also cut its growth forecast in other countries of the Eurozone. Are revised downward projections of France (+ 0.5% to + 0.7%) and the Netherlands (at 0.8% to 1%), while those of Germany remain unchanged (+1.8%) , Spain (+1.3%) and Belgium (1.1%). “The disappointing second-quarter results have cast doubt on the sustainability of the recovery in the euro area,” warns S & amp; P, according to which “economic conditions” area “remain fragile.” In particular, analysts say the rating agency, “there are three factors behind these signs of weakness: the growth of world trade has been fairly modest so far this year; investment companies have shown only small signs of recovery; the sufferings of Italy have become more pronounced. “
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