The Organization Paris reveals the weakness of the Old Continent. Even the S & amp; P reduces the estimates for the economy tricolor, flat view at the end of the year against 0.5% estimated in June. Doubts over the entire Eurozone, promoted the ECB Draghi
MILAN – A double shot of negative estimates strikes about the prospects of recovery of Italy, which on the other hand comes from a series of macro-economic surveys that do not bode well. Today we think of the OECD and the rating agency Standard & amp; Poor’s to put the economy tricolor behind the blackboard.
Scissors drastic OECD. Particularly striking is the hardness of the revised estimates by the Organization in Paris. The OECD has in fact drastically cut its growth forecasts in the Economic Report intermediate released today, providing for 2014 a decline in GDP of 0.4% of the Peninsula against the 0.5% indicated in the outlook of the half-year in May. Also for 2016, the review is clear: the estimates are now aiming to + 0.1% vs. 1.1% predicted last spring.
Those charged in the Italian economy are revisions heavier of the relationship (which is an update of the outlook six months) and Italy is the only country among the big recession. The OECD has cut the outlook for more of the other G7 countries. the German GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% both this year (from 1.9% indicated in May) and the next (from 2.1%). For the whole of the Eurozone expected growth this year has been reduced to 0.8% (from 1.2%) and 1.1% (from 1.7% next).
Alarm Eurozone, well the USA . “While – says the OECD report – the recovery in some peripheral economies is encouraging other countries face
still structural and budgetary challenges, along with the burden of high debt.” According to the Organization, the growth in the euro area seems to have to stay in the short term “braking”. On the contrary, the recovery “is solid” in the United States is getting stronger in India and is in line in Japan and China. In addition to the unpleasant surprises that could come from low inflation in the Eurozone, to weigh on the horizon there are global geopolitical risks, increased in recent months with the conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and with the uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum on ‘ Scottish independence.
I doubt even the S & amp; P. As mentioned previously also the ratings agency Standard & amp; Poor’s cut its growth estimates del’Eurozona, foreseeing and the Italian economy remain at the stake in 2014, against 0.5% expected giugo. Were also revised downward the estimates of France (+0.5% from +0.7%) and the Netherlands (at 0.8% from 1%), while those of Germany were unchanged (+1, 8%), Spain (+1.3%) and Belgium (1.1%). “The disappointing second-quarter results have cast doubt on the sustainability of the recovery in the euro zone,” he warned S & amp; P, according to which “economic conditions” area “remain fragile.” In particular, analysts have said the rating agency, “there are three factors behind these signs of weakness: the growth of world trade has been fairly modest so far this year, investment companies have shown only small signs of recovery, the sufferings of Italy have become more pronounced. “
In particular, S & amp; P continues to see our country” stuck in recession “and assesses the impact of the bonus from 80 euro desired by Government Renzi will be only 0.1% against 0.3% originally planned. The bad results of the Italian economy weigh “the slowdown in exports” and “delays in structural reforms that have cooled the confidence of businesses and investors.” “The result – said the agency – is that the growth is slowed by weak domestic demand” also due to pay almost stationary.
Bulwark Draghi. Standard & amp; Poor’s has promoted, however, the latest decisions of the ECB. The measures announced, the report says, “suggest a more proactive approach that could eventually result in a complete program of ‘quantitative easing’ and sustain growth in the medium term.” For the moment, even on the basis of the estimates of the market that expects less than $ 10 billion of purchases of Abs per month, the budget of the ECB will struggle to grow.
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