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This article was published June 26, 2015 at 19:08.
The last change is the 26 June 2015 at 20:01.
There is a lot of confusion on the eve of the Eurogroup meeting tomorrow afternoon (early from 17 to 14) with a series of broadsides at point-blank between the main protagonists: Angela Merkel asks Alexis Tsipras to accept the latest proposal of the creditors, Tsipras replied saying he did not accept “blackmail and ultimatum”.
From the more is considered normal, the truth is that when the texture of the agreement is still far from over, if it ever will. The former Troika and governments reiterated that closes tomorrow or the game or do not know what will happen, because Angela Merkel has stated that there are no plans B (something to which of course no one believes). It is possible that the finance ministers tomorrow prolong negotiations again on Sunday: the goal is to decide before markets reopened Monday.
Schaeuble: the chances of an agreement are the 50%
For the German Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, currently the chances of an agreement are the 50%. This means that it has a lot of confidence that Tsipras accept the latest offer circulated in the morning: provide for the extension of the current aid program for five months (expiring end of November) with total outlay of 12 billion euro of which 1.8 billion immediately as soon as the Greek Parliament would vote the agreement. All in time to pay the IMF installment of 1.6 billion, the same day of expiry of the current aid program: 30 June. Before the release, however, they will have to decide even four national parliaments: in Germany, Estonia, the Netherlands and Finland.
The time is tight. 12 billion Europeans should be added 3.5 billion from the IMF.
What should give in return Greece
What Greece must give in return? Here’s the deal. The reaction of Tsipras to the “ultimatum” and to “blackmail” was followed by the meeting with Merkel and Hollande, twenty minutes to measure their positions.
The open questions are always about pensions and level taxation (VAT, business) but as things distances “would not be very far in terms of financial effort”, indicating a European source. The opposite in terms of credibility of the measures proposed by Tsipras, in view of the creditors, and the need to have a clear picture of priorities on which Greece has to accept monitoring of creditors (albeit in a less visible, but not necessarily more ‘soft, softer than in the past).
Debt Restructuring: reduction or further delay?
Then there’s the question of the debt which Tsipras continues to call for the restructuring. At least the leader greek wants to bring before Parliament the commitment of creditors to alleviate it. The IMF agrees with him, but critics Athens because the measures planned by the government can not, according to the IMF analysis, to achieve the stated objectives (the primary surplus this year and next year).
The fact that today the US Treasury Secretary, Jacob Lew has indicated that Greece’s creditors should demonstrate flexibility and to consider a debt restructuring of Athens, will fuel controversy between the two sides of the Atlantic: none of the Eurozone countries also want to just talk about it. On this there is the veto of the German chancellor. The German parliamentarians, in fact, argue that, in the most critical case, the greek debt should be further deferred, but should not be completely reduced.
The Portuguese Prime Minister Coelho: “No discount for Greece ‘
The discussion at the European Council on Greece lasted an hour and a half. You were raised voices States already submitted to the European rescue and the IMF with the Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho said that the inability to proceed according to the logic of “double standards” in the clear, Greece can not get discounts that other countries have failed to achieve.
It is not clear whether the conflict of the last few hours reflects more the need for the two sides to hold the point to the last before making the move to come out negotiations or the need to prove that the person responsible for the failure is the other. In negotiations in reality these two factors weigh both.
Source EU, technically difficult to pay the IMF, risk of arrears for two days
At this point it would be technically difficult to avoid a couple of days only Greece is in a situation of “arrears in payments” to the International Monetary Fund. He pointed to a European head. It is a fact that indicates the same source in Il Sole 24 Ore, it would be negative for the financial markets, but this is a temporary situation because, at best, an agreement will be found tomorrow Eurogroup.
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