“In recent days there has been progress – said Juncker – but not there yet. I do not know if there will be an agreement. ” With these words, the president Jean Claude Juncker welcomed the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, giving him a few pats on the shoulder.
If the agreement and the decision of Athens do not come today “there are still many days this week to arrive at a decision,” he
however reassured Angela Merkel, speaking at Magdeburg, and reiterating that a decision can now be based on an agreement with the three institutions.
“It’s time for a substantive and viable solution that allows Greeks return to growth in the Eurozone, with social justice and cohesion, “said Tsipras. While Juncker said: “We have made progress over the past two days, but not there yet. I do not know if we will have an agreement today.
Now at stake is no more just the future of Greece, but the very concept of Europe. What will be staged today it will not be a negotiation on numbers: the positions are close now, with the new proposals Greece and creditors are only 0.5% of the GDP of Greece.
This morning, the ECB has decided to increase the maximum potential liquidity (Ela) that keeps alive the Greek banks try dall’emorragia capital in progress. This was written to Bloomberg confirming expectations Eve without specifying the amount of the increase.
The clash will all’Eurosummit all political: a government of the extreme left, the only eurozone and the first in Western Europe since the war, which rebels against austerity policies decided by institutions led Democrat. The government Syriza can not afford to betray election promises and other governments can not afford to give in to the neogovernanti the radical left who question the rules applied so far, and expect a haircut.
There are several concerns of governments in charge against any concession to Syriza. First, an opening could pave the way for movements such as Podemos in Spain, M5S in Italy, Sinn Fein in Ireland, Le Pen in France, and give life to the whole galaxy European Eurosceptic. Second, other countries in the program or just come out, such as Cyprus, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, could demand an easing of the conditions imposed on them in return for aid.
But, on the other hand, also keep a rigid position that could push Greece out of the euro would have political repercussions, because even Europe unable to reach out to Athens would give arguments to the Eurosceptics, especially at a time when it is under attack because unable to show solidarity with the immigration issue.
The comparison will not be easy, and whatever happens the eurozone will never be the same: if you sell to Syriza, will mark the end of the bailouts in exchange for harsh conditions, and if they will not give up, will forever change shape with the first exit of a country from the 19 of the single currency.
Meanwhile, Greece submitted a new plan that Tsipras explained by phone to Merkel, Hollande and Juncker. Under the new proposals, Athens would be ready to adopt permanent fiscal measures amounting to 2% of GDP while creditors would ask for measures 2.5%. 0.5% missing would be covered by other “administrative measures.” Accept then abolish early retirement pensions from 2016 , and would increase the solidarity contribution required to taxpayers and society. But all in exchange for a debt restructuring . On this point, lenders are willing to offer what we already proposed Samaras in November 2012: a cut in interest on bilateral loans, extension of EFSF loan maturities of 15 years and interest payments deferred for 10 years. But only if Athens will approve all the measures required.
Before dell’Eurosummit Tsipras will meet President Draghi, Juncker, Lagarde, Dijsselbloem and Tusk. An intense exchange of telephone calls between the leaders of the Eurozone and the IMF has prepared positions for Eurosummit, which will be preceded by a Eurogroup, three hours early to allow more time for negotiations. According to Prime Minister Matteo Renzi “There are all conditions for the agreement with Greece, do not miss this window of opportunity.” The premier then reassured again that the risk of contagion to Italy does not exist.
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