MILAN – Hours 16:50. Janet Yellen recognizes that the US labor market has been strengthened and that there are prospects of moderate economic growth, so as to have “reinforced” the possibility of a rise in interest rates in recent months. But unspoken agenda bolted to the tight monetary policy and the markets seem to focus on the latter, strength to strength. Milan sale of 0.65% after a colorless morning, Frankfurt gaining 0.6%, Paris 1% and London 0.5%. Positively also Wall Street , with the Nasdaq adding 0.75% and the Dow Jones 0.6%.
The traditional annual symposium in Jackson Hole, which is an opportunity for exchange of views among central bankers worried that he had exhausted the tools available to face a new crisis, it was eagerly awaited by investors, who were looking for clues to a possible monetary tightening already in the 20-21 September meeting. Vincenzo Longo, an analyst at IG, said the hot Yellen speech recognizing in her a “tone a bit ‘more hawkish than it is usually in his character.” According to the expert, the more likely “remains for a rate hike in December” option, and the positive trend in the markets “after the initial setback for the phrase Yellen is a reaction of ‘no news series, good news’: in fact did not announce anything concrete, “and in the operating rooms” has only taken note of his words. ” The Fed’s action will therefore “directed by the next incoming macroeconomic performance: over all, the occupation 2 September, retail sales at mid-month and finally inflation.” On the eve of the symposium, Fed Funds futures indicated a possibility of upward of three in September: twice two weeks ago and a significant improvement over the zero round indicated immediately after the referendum on Brexit. For the December meeting rooms rather than 50%. “You have to remember,” Longo gloss, “that during the last year, an indication of the future has been amended several times. But each time the market has moved too far forward the possibility of a rise, the Fed has come a reminder: the clear intent is to avoid that the market is not prepared, in the moment of decision. “
a drive up the chance (although you have to get to the December meeting to overcome 50 % chance of a hike) had been in the last few days some statements “hawk” of members of the Fed’s board: the number one of the Kansas City Fed, Esther George, reiterated his call for ensuring higher rates and colleague Dallas, Robert Kaplan, stressed that the conditions are ripening for a handshake. From Wyoming, the hawk James Bullard said that “September might be an appropriate moment” to intervene. A to lean towards a supplement of wait-there was instead the downward revision of US GDP , which was brought – as of expectations – to + 1.1% in the second quarter of ‘ year, from 1.2% previously. However, the positive report on consumer spending. L ‘ performance of the possibility of a rise in US interest rates in September (according to the market meeting): cleared after Brexit are then climb
On the macroeconomic front registering the zero growth for the France in the second quarter (+ 1.4% on annual figure), while consumer confidence rose to 97 points in August from 96 in July. Always trust is spoken in Germany, but this time consumers: they reacted well to Brexit and according to the institute Gfk index confidence in Germany rose in September to 10.2 from 10 August, against expectations for a stable result. British consumers have regained some of the confidence lost after the vote on Brexit of June: the YouGov / CEBR Consumer Confidence Index rose by 3.2 points in August, making the highest jump on a monthly basis from the February 2013 and rising to 109.8 points. Also in the UK, the GDP of the second period of 2016 was confirmed at + 0.6% to tow consumption. Returning to the US, in addition to the GDP fell more than expected consumer confidence calculated by the University of Michigan: The index stood at 89.8 points, down 90.4 points from the preliminary reading of mid-month and 90 points registered at the end of July.
in the morning, the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed down. At the end of the Nikkei trading left on the ground 1.17% to 16,360.71 points. Falling also Topix, -1.25% to 1287.90 share. The markets have grossed the fifth month of falling inflation, fell in July delo 0.2% and 0.5% per year: the worst figure since March 2013.
The prices of the oil in turn upward after being pressured by the doubts of the minister of Saudi Arabia on the need to cut production. When the European day draws to a close in New York WTI crude oil exceeds the threshold of $ 48 a barrel. Gold live upside: it is trading at $ 1330 an ounce.
No comments:
Post a Comment