the majority of Americans, given the choice, would prefer to have running water in the house rather than a personal computer. Three billion ‘smartphone’ in the world or a “social network” from a half billion subscribers may have contributed to the economy of less tin box sealed: it had been invented to the 800, the latter made meat transportable anywhere in the US, has improved the protein to tens of millions of men and children, he has lengthened life expectancy and increasing contribution to the efficiency of the workers in the American metropolis. Similarly the washing machine in the 50 freed women from the home duties, has allowed them to break into companies accelerating the work of many offices (perhaps) more than I’ve ever done Internet.
Paradoxes of this kind, highlighted by the economist Robert J. Gordon of Northwestern University , very ambiguity explain that yesterday Janet Yellen has skillfully maintained. Once again, the Federal Reserve chairman has not been able to report even vaguely the time of the next increase in interest rates. Simply, it admitted that the US economy developments remain difficult to read for her and her colleagues at the Fed. Now in its seventh year, the recovery continues to disappoint: for the first time after a recession in the United States has never reached a pace annual 3% growth, despite full employment to 17 million people and consumers in more since 2009. the Fed itself has failed to overstate the potential 13 of the last two 15 growth forecasts in the United States, as underlined by the Wall Street Journal . And the changes of direction dictated by insecurity continue to repeat: at the beginning of the year the members of the Fed’s summit foresaw four increases in interest rates in 2016, but have not decided yet not one being afraid to offend the fragile balances of the economy.
Robert Gordon has an explanation: running water, the distribution of the meat protein of thousands of kilometers, the washing machine and other innovations of many decades ago were the most revolutionary technology the last twenty years. An antibiotic saves more lives than a million emails, notes Gordon. Recently in his blog also Ben Bernanke, the precessore Yellen at the Fed, it is highlighting details that could prove him right. Productivity growth – the ability to generate value for a given time of labor – “has unfortunately let down repeatedly during this recovery.” The most famous economists predicted around 2% in 2009 but today the United States, known Bernanke travels “closer to 0.5% a year.” Hence the ultimate paradox that former Fed Chairman recalls in a statement abrasive imperceptibly For years his successors in the US central bank will not do that to make forecasts on the growth potential of the country or on the interest rates at cruising speed and then correct for the worse (see chart).
in this Italy is becoming unintentionally a model. As always when the stagnant productivity, sooner or later the weather around the institutions is poisoned. Not only between the central bank and the American public, with whom the faith in the Fed has been halved in recent years according to a Gallup poll. It also happens in the heart of the elite who until yesterday were leading the country on the basis of a fundamental consensus between them. Edgy, Bernanke by his blog encourages analysts to not give too much attention to current, wavering Fed leaders to understand where rates will go: “Observers not stand to benefit in analyzing their statements or speeches, and from paying attention to the data on the economy. ” Yesterday from Jackson Hole Yellen answered him with a hint of annoyance equally disguised in academic language: “The level (adjusted, ed) in short-term rates will vary over time in response to shifts in economic conditions that are often evident only in retrospect by then. ”
There are some who does not limit itself to criticism sweatshirts, because the uncertainty of recent months is creating a challenge of power. Yesterday on Wall Street Journal Larry Summers, former minister of the Treasury Bill Clinton and Barack Obama adviser, had words of unprecedented violence to Yellen. “The Fed’s leaders have lost credibility by providing constantly close that, as a precaution, they never put into practice – he said -. The investment effect was daunting. ” But maybe its not only a battle of ideas. Summers was favorite for the presidency of the Fed four years ago, before having to throw in the towel in the face of those who accused him of having publicly expressed prejudices against women. Only one woman president of the United States Hillary Clinton could appoint him to the post of Yellen in 2017. He, in the meantime, how can it help.
August 26, 2016 (modified August 27, 2016 | 08:48)
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