The markets have heard for two days, between confusion and nervousness, the words of central bankers in Jackson Hole International Symposium organized by the Federal Reserve on the strategies required by a sick shooting. Now eagerly awaiting clarification from something less ambiguous economic data and for large investors appointments. The countdown has begun for the unemployment rate and the jobs created in the US in August, which will arrive on Friday and could decisively affect the timing of the next tight on interest rates promise from Wyoming from Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and even more by his deputy Stanley Fischer, who has put on the table are also two hikes within the year. Among the market test, in Europe, it is expected the outcome of auctions of Italian Treasury securities: tomorrow the BoT to six months and on Tuesday the BTP five and ten years.
Too much discretion in the policy Yellen
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Yesterday, the Symposium, it fell to the exponent of the ECB Coeuré Benoit and the President of the Japanese central Bank Haruhiko Kuroda, both still engaged in anti-crisis stimulus policies as the Fed tries to normalize its monetary policy in a complex game of global economies and divergent choices in play. They intervened in a panel from which the collaborator Mario Draghi has launched a new and heartfelt appeal so that governments and other policymakers to do more to consolidate the expansion, leaving the entire mission to the Central Bank: “We live in an exceptional situation – said Coeuré – All of our measures were a necessary response. But they were made assuming that the low real interest rates were temporary because other policies would intervene. If other players will not make the need in their areas of responsibility, we may have to go deeper in our strategy to respect the mandate of price stability. ” Coeuré, already in recent days, he had defended as a positive experience of the euro area with extremely low interest rates and quantitative easing while citing risks to intermediaries and financial stability. But he added that its inadequate structural and fiscal reforms may force a more accommodative actions.
USA, Europe, Japan: the different impacts of Qe
The ECB is planning the next summit on September 9 and the Bank of Japan on the 20th of the month will report the results of a ‘ comprehensive review “of the stimuli and their effectiveness which could lead speculate operators, to support new initiatives. Global panel was part of a symposium dedicated to monetary policy models, which saw discussions on negative rates, the evolution of the markets, the central bank balance sheets and financial stability.
For States Yellen States and the crucial test to evaluate how to proceed with a gradual and desired standards should become the occupation of August. The expectation of analysts, on average, for the creation of 175,000 jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 4.8% from 4.9% previously. The 275,000 new jobs represent a slowdown compared to 255,000 in July and 292,000 in June, but still considered a solid and consistent performance, with moderate growth in the economy.
The confirmation of tension, however, is in the initial reaction had by investors with the proclamations of Yellen that close approaches: Friday ranged between ups and downs, with the S & amp; P 500 and Dow Jones finished down while the Nasdaq has torn a guadango. And, if you have increased the chances of a rate hike in December, in spite of everything it is still considered unlikely intervention in September.
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