icy shower to Italy from ‘ Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development . The OECD slashed its growth forecasts for the country, arriving in 2014 to provide that the Gross Domestic Product will fall by 0.4%, compared to 0.5% estimated only in May. And ‘the only negative figure among the countries of G7 and prefigures the third year of recession after that in 2012 the GDP declined by 2.4% in 2013 and contracted by 1.9 %. So far, nes sun another research institute had estimated a decline of the genre, despite the -0.2% recorded in the second quarter Istat so far the bigger picture Pessimistic was delineated by ‘ rating agency Moody’s, foreshadowed in August last year to a contraction, however, limited to 0.1%. In July the Monetary Fund International has revised downwards its estimates, but bringing in a not so grim up 0.3%. While Standard & amp; Poor’s , just on Monday released a report that provides a zero growth , as identical to the one released by the Centre Confindustria Research two months ago. Moody’s, in particular, explains had overstated the impact of the measures taken by the Government of Matthew Renzi . The agency believed that the bonus income tax of 80 euro could boost growth by 0.3 percentage points, while now “seems more plausible” a + 0.1%. And fewer benefits than expected also came from the payment of debts arrears of the public administration. After the news, Piazza Affari veered into negative territory falling to 0.9%, before recovering slightly during the morning and increase losses in the afternoon up to -1.10%.
The more difficult the path to the Law of Stability – Faced with a decline in GDP of 0.4%, making Italy the bottom side of ‘ Eurozone, little can do the review related to the new method of calculating Esa 2010 , so long awaited, led by the Ministry of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan . That retouching “cosmetic” decided at the European level, in fact, only has an effect on the absolute level of the product but not its variation with respect to the previous period. The executive, who has decided to postpone the October 1 update Document of economics and finance just wait for the revised data for 2013, may therefore still rely on a “help” as concerns the relations deficit / GDP and Debt / GDP . But do not avoid cutting so dense its growth forecasts, which, as is known in the prior version of Def amounted to 0.8%. A change of scenery, along with the deflation which has led greatly complicates the work of the executive also in terms of finding the $ 20 billion needed for Law of Stability . Snipping spending makes it more difficult recovery from recession. And the negative reaction of the market may complicate the success of the plan privatization , which is already in trouble. Not only that, even though they are now at historic lows, even the interest rates that the Treasury has to pay to finance the public debt could rise.
For the eurozone expected growth of 0.8%. Germany in progress 1.5% – Only n and 2015, according to the organization in Paris, Italy will see a slight recovery of 0.1%. Against the “full-bodied” + 1.1% in the previous estimate. For the euro area, by contrast, the OECD expects growth of 0.8% this year, accelerating to 1.1% in 2015 GDP is expected to increase in Germany 1.5% both this year and next, despite the slowdown of 0.2% in the second quarter, while France gross domestic product was expected to reach 0.4% in 2014 and 1% in 2015 A recovery with the handbrake on, in fact. The recovery in the eurozone “remains disappointing, especially in the largest countries: Germany, France, Italy,” writes the OECD in Interim economic essessment. But “while the recovery in some peripheral economies is encouraging other countries still face structural challenges and budget, along with the weight of a high debt “. The identikit is exactly what Rome.
Keep tabs on the public finances but take advantage of the flexibility in the rules Ue – Unlike the recovery “is solid” in the United States , is strengthening in India and is in line with the potential in Japan and China. “The lower economic synchronization of the different countries is reflected in the requirements of divergent political strategy. Nevertheless, it remains true that monetary conditions should remain support in all major advanced economies, while most of the countries should make further progress in the consolidation of the budget to ensure that the Debt remains sustainable. ” No to a loosening of control over the Public Accounts , then. But, it is the recipe of the OECD, it is also necessary to use all the spaces existing flexibility. “Given the weakness of application flexibility within the European rules should be used to support growth.”
Reform “ambitious” to increase competition and employment – Then the reminder on the need for reforms: “The continued failure of the global economy to generate strong growth, balanced and inclusive emphasizes’ urgency of reform efforts ambitious. ” To substantially strengthen growth, “insists the Parisian organization,” some countries are seizing the opportunity to reforms Structural and must now ensure its effective implementation, while others need to be more ambitious to increase the competition l ‘ Employment . ” In particular, “lower barriers to trade, reducing the administrative burden on businesses” and liberalize services must be “a shared priority of the advanced economies “. The OECD states that “employment must be increased in countries with a large tax burden on labor,” through “the reduction of contributions on Social Security”, in particular in France.
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