And there are three. After Moody’s in August last touched the OECD and rating agency S & amp; P put pen to paper the prediction of a third year of recession for Italy. It may not be a big surprise for the premier, Matteo Renzi, but a pressure more so, given that short will have to correct the estimates of the government (currently 0.8%) in the Update to Def. It should not be encouraging to see the premier photograph as “the only G7 country with negative growth.” For the organization of Paris dry cutting estimates for 2014 almost one percentage point seen rising from 0.5% indicated in May last year to 0.4% (in 2015 it comes to a tight 0.1% ). More generous S & amp; P that at least provides Italian economy with zero growth (versus +0.5%). The bonus of 80 euro, however, does not pass the exam: the effects are limited to analysts remain concerned that a bit ‘for the whole EU area. Based only on the ECB’s Mario Draghi. For the “more active role” in the crisis, which could lead to an extensive program of quantitative easing. ” Renzi collects the double blow, but it says: “I will make a long speech tomorrow, today, ed) in Parliament. Meanwhile, the opposition, Forza Italy in the head, attacking him: “Immediately reforms, Renzi keeps its promises.”
It should be noted that the cut to digest for the Italian economy is the heaviest recorded in the OECD report for all G7 countries, where only exception Britain. The same OECD estimated a growth in German GDP this year and 1.5% (1.9%). For France, the growth falls from 0.9% to 0.4%. As for the whole Eurozone expected growth is reduced to 0.8% (from 1.2%) and 1.1% (from 1.7%). Fault “that some countries still face structural challenges and budget, along with the burden of debt,” says the OECD, in the face of “encouraging recovery in some peripheral economies.” Thus, growth in the euro area should remain ‘braking’. Also because in addition to the low-inflation EU to weigh on the horizon there are global geopolitical risks, increased by the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the uncertainty over Scotland. In contrast, the recovery is “solid” in the United States.
Concerns over the “fragility” of Europe and the need for reforms are also shared by S & amp; P which has strong ‘doubts about the recovery, “the EU. Also in this case, however, Italy worse comes out of the other countries, since S & amp; P has revised estimates of France (+ 0.5% to + 0.7%) and the Netherlands (to +0.8 +% to 1%), while leaving those in Germany (+ 1.8%), Spain (+1.3%) and Belgium (+1.1%).
The point is that the ‘Italy is seen by S & amp; P as a country’ stuck in recession ‘in which also the bonus of 80 euro, along with the acceleration of the payment of arrears of Pa will have a limited impact 0.1% vs 0, 3% expected. It weighs “the slowdown in exports,” but also “the delays in the structural reforms that have cooled the confidence of businesses and investors.” It weighs especially domestic demand, effectively ‘frozen’, also due to pay almost stationary.
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