shows Tsipras is confident and says that on Monday an agreement between Greece and its creditors will certainly be reached, “the extraordinary summit convened by the President of the EU Council, Donald Tusk, is a positive development in the path to the agreement. There will be a solution in the framework of the EU rules and democracy, which will allow Greece to return to growth. “
We read this statement in depth.
The first point is that the table on Monday night (it starts at 19) is entirely political: the participating Heads of State or Government that have adopted the euro. Tsipras, and with him Varoufakis, believes that the issue can be resolved only politically, given that the technicians, and with them the various finance ministers, according to the numbers below only have ears to hear. Politicians instead … The second key element of the declaration is “the solution within the framework of democracy.” It is the thesis that Tsipras and his have already expressed many times: as SYRIZA won the elections, the rest of Europe must take this into account, and adapt to the will of the people, who do not want more austerity. Here comes the third key element of the statement: “Return to growth.” It means stop with the savings, lend him more money to borrow and share with those without worrying too much about how to return.
Perspective credible? Monday
anything can happen, but before the meeting of 19 there will be one, convened for 15, the Eurogroup, namely the Ministers of Economy and Finance of 19 countries. The hated technicians. They provide their colleagues from seven in the evening the last numbers, so that the so-called politicians know how things are, before you make too much politics. Merkel said that we must deal until the last minute, but Schäuble, her finance minister (ie technical), said that the Greeks must be convinced that the default is a possible option, the default can not be excluded. Moreover, even Donald Tusk, the prime minister (the place that in the previous six months had Renzi) has called a surprise this summit, however, saying: “The situation is critical, we are close to the point where the government will have to decide between accepting the greek I think is a good offer of continued support, or to go to default. ” On the issue of democracy and the will of the people greek, the Greeks themselves will have to admit that at least the same weight, for example, the will of the voters German or Finnish or Spanish, not at all in favor of a new opening of the purse strings. As to the third point, namely the so-called “growth”, the same as Syriza, with their statements and with conduct in recent months, they have made it more difficult. For example, Tsipras, to continue to pay pensions and salaries of state, has not paid suppliers throwing the country into a recession is not too different from that which they would have to submit if he accepted the diktats of the Troika. The two Greeks played their game hoping to capitalize on the widespread terror for the exit of Greece from the euro. Terror to be exploited at the last minute, that is, next Monday or perhaps even in the summit on Thursday. Meanwhile, it has been calculated that savers have withdrawn from the banks of the country almost four billion in four days.
What consequences will result for Italy if Greece fails seriously?
The Italian state is exposed to 40 billion, banks and private individuals for a few dollars, since all, in the last three years, they got rid of the greek debt. The 40 billion must be returned in many years, and then, on the immediate, there should be no repercussions. We are imagining that speculation, the Greeks left the scene, it is quite good, without selling to plunder the Italian public debt. Padoan is sure that it does not splash to spread, “we are solid, no longer 2012.”
And tourists will go to Greece? There will certainly
the drachma, as for print, possibly, the new notes will take at least forty days. The real problem may be the closure of banks and the ban on exports of capital, which will force everyone to go on vacation on a shoestring. It is hoped that tourism will not suffer too much of the new scenario: it is a voice that represents 17% of GDP.
There is a little hope of a deal?
Meanwhile, over optimism of Tsipras, it is to record the opening of Moscow to possible aid to Athens. And the words of the frozen EU Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker at the Spiegel: “I do not understand Tsipras. I always felt that I can not avoid the failure of the talks at any price. ” The creditors may ask for, inter alia, the cut of pensions, which account for another 16% of the GDP. It is possible that at the last minute and Tsipras Varoufakis accept. After all, the other day, took to the streets thousands of Greeks to ask not to leave the euro, to reach an agreement.
No comments:
Post a Comment