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This article was published on June 3, 2015 at 17:40.
The last change is the June 3, 2015 at 19:45.
The Qe works and the recent recovery in consumer prices in the euro is its prime demonstration. This is why the ECB has revised upwards its estimates for inflation for the current year taking them from zero to 0.3 percent. This news, in itself positive, had a negative impact on government bonds whose rates have edged up in a violent manner. Of particular importance in the oscillation of the ten-year German. The rate of the ten-year bunds, which until a few days go traveling around half a percentage point, jumped up to 0.89% not seen since October last year. They rose again, albeit more moderate rates of peripheral countries: that of BTP in particular peaked at 2.20% before closing at 2.17 percent. The lower rise in headline Italian than German was reflected in the yield differential (spread) which yesterday fell closing trade at 138 basis points.
The upward revision in inflation in the Eurozone, as well as the data better than expected release Tuesday by Eurostat, was read by markets as a sign that, if the medicine easy liquidity is starting to give benefit, soon will not be any more need. All the movements of the market that are powered by the Q and therefore are susceptible to a change of course. It happened to the bonds as well as for the euro.
With the perspective and the next time the Quantitative easing, the euro has depreciated sharply against the dollar between the end of 2014 and the start of 2015. Yesterday, as occurred in the most volatile weeks in April and May This trend reversed the change has revised the threshold of $ 1.12 which had not happened since March. Who cares if Draghi has stated that “exit strategy” from politics ultraespansiva for now do not talk, and that, if necessary, purchases of securities may be increased in the future.
The volatility has left relatively immune Exchanges. If more sessions in the earthquake of May an appreciation of the euro was almost always accompanied by a decline in equity markets, yesterday this correlation was not seen. Stock markets, after an uncertain start, remained modest increases for most of the session (here the final balance of the scales continental).
Among the best continental stock exchanges has been to Athens which gained 4.3% with rates on Greek government bonds that have seen a dramatic decrease. What justifies this optimism? An agreement is perhaps around the corner? Judging by the words of the same Draghi (“Currently there is a credible prospect for an agreement ‘) and the German Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble (‘ the latest offer of Athens does not justify the optimism of progress in the negotiations” ) you would say no.
Of course it is not reassuring to the statement by the spokesman for Syriza Nikos Filis that Athens will not pay the 300 million of maturing debt on Friday with the International Monetary Fund if there are good prospects for an agreement with creditors. The nervousness has not seen judging the performance of the Athens Stock Exchange and of the Greek government bonds.
Obviously, the market believes that the threat of an accidental default may force the parties to reach agreements in the classic “area Cesarini”. The market (at least of today’s session) showed to believe in an agreement.
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