->
Padoan continues to repeat that next Monday the Eurosummit extraordinary find a solution to the Greek case and that in any case there would be no repercussions for Italy. Clearly, it can not let slip no hint of nervousness that would be immediately registered by the markets with the risk of triggering speculation in government bonds. But the concern is there and last night the Minister of Economy has crossed Palazzo Chigi for a confidential discussion with the Prime Minister just to inform him about scenarios that could be opened with the exit of Greece from the Euro. Renzi, has also had a telephone conversation with President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker.
Athens is on the brink of the abyss. Tsipras was able to withstand four msi negotiations failed only because it has imposed on Greek austerity harder than that so far before Europe is rejecting. the coffers are empty and the budget is committed only to pay pensions and salaries of state. There are more resources for nothing. The country is exhausted and starving. Undertakings providing administration have accumulated arrears for hundreds of millions. And since the state does not pay, citizens reacted by failing to pay taxes. Tax evasion is rampant and continue pressing the bank run bank to withdraw money. In one day yesterday was withdrawn from the bank deposited over one billion euro. In this week came out well from banks 4.2 billion euro, 2.2% of total bank deposits in the country. This situation is a measure of what might happen if Athens became insolvent towards international creditors.
By 30 June, Greece must repay the IMF 1.6 billion and if this does not happen, the Fund, as clearly said the director Christine Lagarde, will more pay one euro in the vaults of Athens. To address this and other commitments, the government in Athens needs urgent payment of the last tranche of 7.2 billion, the second assistance plan decided in March 2012 for a total of 130 billion. But this is only possible if there is an agreement on the path that Athens must do to stem the crisis. What they are asking creditors is another painful treatment that would give the final blow to the country. Athens should reduce spending on pensions by 1% of GDP, also by eliminating the subsidies for minimum pensions and increase VAT rates to 11 and 23% for products ranging from medicines to electricity. It should also impose an increase in contributions for health. Measures that Tsipras has so far returned to wrecking all vertices. But now we come to the showdown. Without a bridge loan from Europe, in July the banks will be forced to close, the people would fall in place and the government should resign. And that, according to some rumors, that Berlin would like to facilitate the arrival of a government more accommodating. Yesterday Putin’s Russia has reached out making it clear that it is ready to give financial support if Athens should require it. But this is an eventuality that so far the government has not taken into account Syriza aware that it would not be free and then Athens would be very closely connected to Putin.
E Italy? A dossier IMF puts our country together with those so-called peripheral area of risk and on many sites has sparked tam tam indicating Italy as the next case. Padoan said that the contagion effect would be content for Italy, whose financial situation is now more solid than that of 2012. She did not exclude changes in yields and spreads, but does not consider that they can be in the order of 500 points as in November 2011 when it touched a record high of 574 (we are now on the 160). But markets are unpredictable and Italy is not yet perceived as a solid country.
->
No comments:
Post a Comment