Collapse assumptions. February confirms the slowdown already recorded in January. According to the Observer on precarious INPS in the first two months of this year the new employment relationships were 782,420, more than 138,000 less compared to what happened in the same period of 2015 and even less compared with January-February 2014 when they were 856,779. They decreased both the open-ended contracts (-33%, 5%), and those completed (-5.8%), and the stabilization of forward ratios (-14.7%). Well just assumptions apprenticeship (+ 4.5%) and stabilization of apprentices in permanent contracts (+ 23.9%), but in both cases the absolute numbers are small.
The balance of new hires and terminations is still positive, but sharply lower compared to what happened in the last two years. Especially the worrying trend of indefinite assumptions that around 2015 had recorded a boom as a result of the de-contribution. Even in this case the balance of new hires (including stabilization of forward contracts and apprenticeships) and terminations remains positive, but thins more and more in the first two months of this year stops at just 37,113, 74% less that of the same period last year (143,164). It is obvious – even INPS remember – that the data is affected by the reduction of the discount on contributions, that from 100% for three years to those made in 2015 rose to 40% for two years to those made this year. The government minimizes: the figure was expected and predictable, given that in December (last month with the full decontribution) there was an abnormal spike in hiring, 4 times more than the average for the year.
It is true, but only partly. The result of the first two months of this year is lower, in fact, even to that of the corresponding period of 2014, when the balance was 87,180, more than double compared to the current one. And in 2014 the discount on contributions was not there. It is clear that the slower than expected recovery is producing its negative effects on business confidence. And even greater flexibility in the labor market introduced by the Jobs Act (in practice the abolition of article 18 of the Statute protection of workers from unfair dismissal) can dominate on the fear of a more significant slowdown of the recovery.
This explains also another cause for concern: the boom of the voucher, which the unions consider how much more precarious there is currently on the labor market. In the first two months of 2016 they have been sold 19.6 million, 45.2% more than the same period of 2015 (13.5 million), one and a half more than in 2014 (less than 8000000) .
In February, a total recruitment (activated by private employers) were 341,000, a decrease of 48,000 units (-12%) on February 2015; in January the decline was a result of 17%. Those contraction on an annual basis was 34%) indefinitely fell in the month of 33% in February (-46,000) over the same month of 2015 (in January.
19/04/2016 13:45:02
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