Oil, fails the super summit in Doha – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published April 17, 2016 at 22:27 hours.
the last change is the April 17, 2016 at 22:29 hours.

You have ten hours data more of schedule. But the marathon negotiations in Doha is of no effect: the agreement to freeze the production of oil has not been reached. After a long standoff sixteen producers, OPEC and not, who had gathered in the capital of Qatar have declared surrender, opening the way to a likely decline in international oil prices. Largely it was precisely the expectation of an agreement to support the recovery of Brent, who had climbed the slope to nearly $ 45 a barrel last week, after he collapsed in January under $ 30, the lowest for 13 years .

speculators, skeptical about the possibility of success of the summit, in recent days had already positioned on the options market to make money on rebates predictable. On the other hand, even an agreement in Doha would not have moved far the balance between supply and demand. The draft which made from canvas the discussions included a stabilizing output to the levels of January through October. A committee consisting of four ministers, two OPEC and two not, should have supervised the compliance with the agreements. In January, however, the production of the countries involved was very high. And leave out Iran, pledged to recover the production levels before sanctions, have also undermined every effort.

It was precisely the Iran node to scupper the talks. Saudi Arabia has in fact put across: no brake on production if Tehran had not done so. But the Iranians in Doha have not even gone, having clarified unequivocally that they would not cooperate. Minister Bijan Zanganeh had even called it “ridiculous” the claim to convince him.

Even Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Salman was equally clear. And its radical opposition to an agreement without the participation of Iran has prevailed, perhaps even against the will of his oil minister, Ali al Naimi, who had hinted greater availability. The disagreement, if confirmed, could be the prelude to the sunset of a figure who for decades has been one of the most influential personalities ever to the oil market. Moreover, some time Al Naimi – which has more than 75 years – reported would withdraw in retirement.

A temper probable oil declines in reaction to the failure of Doha c ‘ is the strike of oil workers in Kuwait, which was providentially made worse by reducing the production of the country to 1.1 million barrels per day, 1.9 million less than the norm. In one shot the ‘oversupply that depressed crude oil prices has disappeared, at least temporarily. But later to solve the imbalance we think the decline of oil shale and other non-OPEC production, which are finally beginning to buckle under the weight of the low prices.

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