MILAN – 11:00 hours. Financial markets treat weak in the wake of the decline in oil prices and the uncertain closing of Asian Squares. Milan Expands the red of the start and lost 1.35%, with Fca penalized by possible involvement in the investigation of emissions in Germany. The ACEA, the Association of European manufacturers, “takes note” of the ads, but intervenes with an official position: “All tested vehicles comply with current regulatory requirements”. Even the weak banking sector. The other EU lists deal in line with Milano: London lost 0.6%, Frankfurt 1.2% and Paris 0 , 8%.
It does not help the mood of the markets as expected given day (calendar), that the Ifo index on the German business confidence : with minor variations, the index It fell in April to 106.6 points from 106.7 in March and especially against expectations which estimated an increase to 107 points. The index on current conditions fell to 113.2 (from 113.8) with a consensus of 113.8 while the expectations rose to 100.4 from 100, however, below the 100.7 consensus. More substantial agenda of the United States, which provides for the sale of new homes, orders for durable goods, the services PMI and consumer confidence. Also Mario Draghi is the ECB window to see if the extraordinary measures put in place by the central institution are paying off: Friday will be published data on the Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of the year , earlier than usual (just one month after the end of the reference period, as with the US and UK); the publication is to fall, so, along with the inflation readings.
If the European Central Bank expects the economy confirmation of the correctness of monetary policy decisions, the Fed back to take center stage. As noted by analysts, the position taken by Frankfurt (leave unchanged stimuli and understand what effect the measures already put in place, before taking further steps) opens a hole at Janet Yellen for the second upward rate since last December. If this happened while the ECB announces new incentives, in fact, it would open a gap between euro and dollar too dangerous for American industries: Use a coin in strengthening (for granted in the case of a rise in US interest rates, while the ECB printing money) depress foreign trade with stars and stripes. According to the market, the chances of a touch up the cost of borrowing from the Fed as early as the Wednesday, April 27 meeting are zero, and they get up to one in five for the June meeting. But in the third quarter of the year could reach the Fed’s move.
‘ € is above share $ 1.12, but the markets are looking to Thursday’s BoJ meeting to see if others will announce economic stimulus. The agency Bloomberg said that the BOJ could approve of the banking system damaged by supporting policy measures of negative rates and the news has weakened the yen in the closing of last Friday, only to catch up today. The European currency is changing hands at $ 1.125 and 125 yen. Slightly widens the spread between ten-year BTPs and German counterparts: it is above 125 points with a yield of Italian bonds is 1.48%.
The price of the oil is down after a week full of ascent, although the WTI remains above $ 43. Today’s fall is related to the news that the Saudi Arabian Oil Co. intends to complete in May, the expansion of the Shaybah field, keeping to 12 million barrels a day to its production capacity. On Asian markets, Light crude futures WTI give 66 cents to $ 43.07 and Brent futures retreat from 59 cents to $ 44.52 a barrel. On the market, however, dominate the expectations for a rise in black gold prices: the “long” positions, meaning that a bet on a growing trend of values, are the highest since May last year, and despite the failure of the Doha summit to freeze the production crude has returned from an 8% last week, driven by growth in US consumption.
a weak start to the week Tokyo Stock Exchange , which it closed down 0.76% to 17,439.30 points. Down around half a percentage point for the Stock Exchange Shanghai . Wall Street has returned from a checkered session despite some disappointing accounts (Microsoft of all), the Dow Jones has managed to keep the psychological threshold of 18 thousand points and the S & amp; P 500 ended in fraction upside, while below 2,100. The index of 30 blue chip and the benchmark filed the second row in eighth upward and maintain a positive balance from beginning of the year (respectively, by more than 3% and 2%); not so with the technology Nasdaq index, which instead ended the second consecutive week down broadening the loss from early January (approximately 2%).
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