Monday, April 18, 2016

Def, Bankitalia: Government plausible scenario, but risks remain – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published April 18, 2016 at 14:09 hours.
the last change is the April 18, 2016 at 14:26 hours.

the programmatic scenario Def “can not be said to be implausible on the basis of the current economic situation, but remains a risk of less favorable developments. ” This was stated by Deputy Director General of Bank of Italy, Luigi Federico Signorini, in testimony before the Budget Committees of the House and Senate. “Geopolitical tensions – he added – are expected to impact on the confidence of households and businesses. Financial markets remain subject to high volatility. ”

Bank of Italy: good debt falling, but not large margins
Bankitalia applauded objective recognized by the central government of debt reduction but warned on margins ” no large “available and the need for” a clear debt reduction, visible and progressive. ” “The Def has called the reversal of the dynamics of the debt in relation to GDP as a” strategic objective of the Government. ” It is a positive and important fact that, despite the worsening growth projections, both confirmed the objective to start debt reduction from this year. But the margins are not large, “said the Deputy Director General of the Bank of Italy, who recalled how” if you want to maintain and strengthen market confidence is important to achieve over time a clear debt reduction, visible and progressive ” . The action on the public accounts for the Bank of Italy “is inseparable from an economic policy aimed at creating the conditions for robust and sustained growth.” In this sense the structural measures already taken by the Government and Parliament “are beginning to give effect, even perceived by international public opinion.” To strengthen them, “we must continue along this road.” From major progress on opening up markets to competition, that have so far been “limited.”

“still above pre-crisis levels of tax pressure”
Bank of Italy said that the tax burden decreased from 43.2% in 2014 to 42.9% in 2015, but however, it is pointed out that “remained above, for about 2.5 percentage points, the average for the decade preceding the crisis of sovereign debt” .For via Nazionale “there is no alternative to stringent and effective measures on the revenue and expenditure ». In this sense, the deactivation of the safeguard clauses contained in Def, with sterilization of the possible VAT increase, “is acceptable, given the recessionary effect it would have on a still weak recovery.” However, such clauses “are not an effective tool to enhance the credibility of the fiscal consolidation” because “if you repeatedly disregarded – as indeed happened – can increase uncertainty.”

“Evaluate permanent tax wedge for employment ‘
Via Nazionale also he asked to carefully evaluate” the case for introducing permanent reductions in the tax wedge, the benefit employment growth. ” “The new discipline – has pointed Signorini – has made a significant contribution to the expansion of employment, grafting driven due to the cyclical recovery and the lower labor costs resulting from the tax relief. According to our estimates – also it highlighted – the revision of the regulation of labor relations has contributed, like decontribution in force since January 2015, to double the likelihood that a fixed-term contract is converted into an open-ended. ” Approved by Bank of Italy plans to reorder the overall structure of the tax expenditures, because the rest of the spending review, which “represent shared goals, being able to increase the efficiency of both the tax system and public spending.” The fight against tax evasion and tax avoidance is important, “but the resources expected from measures on should be evaluated as prudent manner.”



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