The month of March ended, says Istat, with 90,000 employees in more than in February. The unemployed decreased (-63 thousand) and also inactive (-36 thousand). The unemployment rate fell to three decimal places in one month, from 11.7% to 11.4%, a value not seen since the end of 2012. In addition, the youth unemployment rate in February and March decreased significantly, even of one and a half, going from 38.2% to 36.7%. reassuring numbers for the Italian economy, which belie the dire predictions of a possible “deflation” of the effects of decontribuzioni and Jobs Act advanced by some analysts. The occupation, in fact, has strengthened, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Undoubtedly there are still many jobs that are missing compared to those lost during the crisis, but, after having bottomed out between 2013 and early 2014, the improvements achieved to date prove solid and relevant entities .
to give an idea of what took place on the Italian labor market over the past two years is enough to remember that the total unemployment rate had peaked at 13.1% in November 2014 and now is lower than 1, 7 points. While the youth unemployment rate, which had risen in a very worrying levels up to 43.5% in March 2014, is now lower than the peak of 6.8 points well. We have written several times in these columns that the monthly data on employment and unemployment, which originate from estimates and statistical manipulations exposed to constant adjustments must always be evaluated with great caution. For orientation it is therefore better to look at quarterly averages and the medium- to long-term trends rather than assist whenever the inevitable clash of “owls” and optimistic interpretation of the latest baked Istat statistics. Which, almost always, one month after the rise and fall; without forgetting that the data adjustments, not infrequently, they can even be inversely with respect to the preliminary estimates made in the previous month.
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