MILAN – The Mayor is in line with the European Commission and estimates for 2016 growth in gross domestic product Italian by 1.1% against 1.2% budgeted government in Def. The Institute of Statistics in the report on the prospects for the Italian economy stressed that domestic demand, excluding inventories, would contribute positively to GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points, while net exports and changes in inventories would provide a negative contribution equal to one-tenth of a percentage point each. Translated: the resumption passes for Italian consumers who are recovering confidence and return to consume. To definitively consolidate, however, the Italian economy will need a revival in exports. Meanwhile Palazzo Chigi awaits the green light from Brussels of the EU Commission to the request for flexibility on the accounts: “In the coming – said the premier Matteo Renzi – There will be an exchange of letters between the Commission and the Minister Padoan, and we can see recognized this element of flexibility that is different money. “
as reconstructed by Republic on newsstands, by the EU Commission the green light will come to Italy to a margin of 0 , 75% of GDP for 2016 (a discount of over 14 billion austerity), with the request not to deviate from the upper correction targets to 0.5% in 2017 and 2018, to be verified in the fall. “It ‘s still less than what I wanted, but it is an important fact – added Renzi – a recognition of the entire country. We got a significant agreement, important. It is not the solution to all ills but affirms a principle: the Europe is flexibility. “
the recovery. in particular, the report says Istat, the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2016 (+0, 3%) “has confirmed, albeit with moderate intensity, the continuation of the expansion phase of the Italian economy started at the beginning of the previous year. Some of the factors to support growth such as low energy prices, the reduction in interest rates interest and the gradual improvement in confidence among operators are expected to produce their effects in the current year. ” Compared to estimates from November last year, however, new growth forecasts have been revised downwards by 0.3 percentage points. Overall, Istat said, the forecasting framework incorporates a more pronounced reduction of exports than imports.
Unemployment. A push to the increase in consumption will also decline from the unemployment rate expected to drop to 11.3% from 11.9% last year: according to Istat also the employment rate is expected to increase by 0.8% with the growth of economic activity. The Institute of Statistics points out the positive dynamics will still benefit of tax relief for new hires, although the amount has dropped by 8 thousand and EUR 3,250.
Inflation. L ‘turnaround on prices avverrò not until autumn: we have to wait the end of summer. according to ISTAT – to record the end of deflation and witness a weak growth. In April, despite the intervention of the ECB, prices fell by 0.5%: at present “the dynamics of prices should not deviate from the present up to the summer months, autumn would materialize a turnaround, which would bring the trend rate of more sustained values towards the end of the year, although still less than 1% “. To keep prices anchored down is mainly the foreign component of the costs with energy products that would record a negative change in annual average also in 2016.
Investments. In 2016 consolidate the recovery in consumption and there will be a progressive increase in investment. According to ISTAT estimates, household spending in real terms is estimated to increase by 1.4%, fueled by the increase in disposable income and the improvement of labor market conditions. Investment is expected to recover instead of 2.7%, thanks to stronger than expected growth of the economy and improvement in credit market conditions.
The risks. The forecast of the Institute of Statistics, however, are not immune from downside risks that might depend above all by “a stronger slowdown of international trade and the possible resurgence of tensions in the financial markets”. In contrast, “a more pronounced recovery of the capital accumulation process, linked to the development of national and European policies, would be a further stimulus to economic growth.”
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