MILAN – Greece, Brexit and the United States. The coordinates of the financial markets, in the coming week will be drawn according to the news that emerge on this triple front, after the Sendai Financial G7 noted the need to support the difficult recovery, he has ruled out a currency war and pointed their finger on the UK referendum as one of the greatest dangers of the year.
It will be a week full of public events for the leaders of the US central bank, starting from President Janet Yellen. The most awaited day will, however, on Friday, when it will be diffused the second reading of US GDP: any strong deviation from the first definitely affect the decisions of the FOMC. On the macroeconomic front, they are also expected data on GDP of Germany, Britain and Spain, and by Istat are coming in numbers on retail sales, orders and industrial turnover and confidence of businesses and consumers. Nerves for the Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday, which will be back on the Greek crisis talks. The IMF continues to demand an immediate debt restructuring but in Brussels (and especially in Berlin) do not want to hear about at least until 2018. From the latest rounds of meetings it seems that you are open for a few glimmers try to bridge the gap between the Fund and Germany: you think – for example – to allocate the proceeds of the ECB by the yields on Greek bonds in Athens itself, which then waits for a tranche of aid of about ten billion. The time begins to be little, because for July Greece has 2.3 billion at the ECB. Another possible route of exploration is the purchase by the ESM, the European Stability Mechanism, the greek debt underwritten by the IMF, in order to lengthen maturities and reduce the rate.
A Square business, the last week has been on file with a flat result (+ 0.2% or so), but was characterized by high volatility. Here are the main events of the next octave.
MONDAY ‘May 23
– Italy: conference in Japan with the general manager of Bank of Italy, Salvatore Rossi.
– EU: hearing at the European Parliament’s Energy Commissioner, Maros Sefcovic; the CEO of Eni, Claudio Descalzi, intervenes in the Industry Committee of the European Parliament; Madrid conference IIf with Peter Praet, Daniele Nouy and Elke Konig (ECB); Markit PMI indices of the main euro area countries.
– Use: speak James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed and Patrick Harker of the Philadelphia Fed.
– Russia: retail sales and unemployment in April.
– Japan: speaks the deputy governor of the BOJ, Hiroshi Nakaso; superindex March.
TUESDAY ‘May 24
– Italy: opens in Rome Forum PA 2016. Jeremy Rifkin opened the meeting with a’ keynote ‘
– EU: Eurogroup meeting of Spain and Greece; Financial Stability Review.
– Germany: in the first quarter GDP; Zew index of business confidence in May.
– Use: Quarterly of Hewlett-Packard.
WEDNESDAY ‘May 25
– Italy: Rome Forum PA 2016. Conference ‘Connecting Italy with Transport Minister Graziano DelRio
– Italy: orders and industrial turnover in March.
– EU: Ecofin meeting on VAT and banking union; Vitor Constancio speaks (ECB).
– Germany: Gfk index on consumer confidence in June, Ifo index on investor confidence in May.
– Use: speak Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed and the Neel Kashkari Minneapolis Fed; weekly oil inventories.
– Canada: the central bank decides on interest rates.
– Russia: Quarterly of Sberbank.
– Kazakhstan: Astana Economic Forum with Christine Lagarde.
THURSDAY ‘May 26
– Italy: Rome Forum PA 2016. final day on surgery Economy Minister PierCarlo Padoan
– Italy: retail sales for March.
– EU: Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, received by the Commissioner for budget programming, Kristalina Georgieva.
– Spain: the first quarter GDP.
– Gb: the first quarter GDP.
– Use: weekly requests for unemployment benefits, new home sales and pending home sales in April, speaks James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed.
– Kazakhstan: Astana Economic Forum with Christine Lagarde.
FRIDAY ‘May 27
– Italy: business and consumer confidence in May.
– Spain: retail sales in April; rod Bot 6 months.
– Use: for the first quarter GDP; conference with Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen.
– Japan: April inflation.
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