Exchanges expect good news from Mario Draghi. weaker gold, dollar rising – The Republic

MILAN – Hours 14:15. Markets expect, for the first time after a long time, some good news from the ECB Mario Draghi. On Thursday, the directory Eurotower will meet in Vienna to keep rates unchanged, following the decision in March to expand the program to purchase bonds to 80 billion a month. But the focus will be on quarterly forecasts of economic staff, who had to lower expectations of inflation over the last three updates. This time, according to the expectations monitored by Bloomberg , only 9% of economists predicts a cut price trends expected for 2016 and 2018, it remains low (11%) for estimates of 2017. the price recovery is undoubtedly linked to the fact that oil has abandoned the lows seen in recent months, and according to many analysts, the ECB goal of bringing inflation close to 2% remains distant. Meanwhile, however, a small sign of optimism would not hurt a phase where multiple factors operating in the markets seem to be oriented to growth.

The graph shows how to divide the expectations towards the revision of the ECB estimates. In blue those expecting a rise, in red and black stationary pessimists who bet on declines. The first line is about growth in 2016, the second inflation, 2017. The two other growth in 2017 and inflation in 2017

Who does not shooting problems are the United States, on the contrary – for own admission the Fed chairman, Janet Yellen – approach the second monetary tightening after last December’s rate hike. The words of a Washington number generated in the markets a strengthening dollar, while the raw materials move downward. The European markets moved little treat: Milan marks a rise of 0.5%, Frankfurt 0.4% and Paris recovers 0 , 2% and London is closed for holidays such as New York.

In the morning, the shares of the Tokyo stock Exchange have driven markets Asian: the Nikkei index closed up 1.39%, driven by the conviction that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has decided to postpone for the second time and as long as the increase in tax on consumption from 8% to 10% already set for spring 2017. on the other hand, retail sales were down 0.8% in April on 2015, a figure that reinforces the belief that it is important not to weigh further on consumption.

the macroeconomic agenda has a number of interesting data, in the march to the US report on the work on Friday (all events). Today we look in particular with inflation in Spain fell by 0.6% in May (-1% trend). It then waits for a given price of Germany, while French GDP has recorded a 0.6% growth in the first quarter of 2016, slightly above the expectation of analysts. Improves in May, the atmosphere of European economic confidence : the Commission’s index in the Eurozone increased by 0.7 points to 104.7 in the EU and 0.5 to 105.7 . A recall is mainly confidence among consumers and the retail manager in the trade sector and in construction, while it is stable in the industry sector and declining in the services. In Italy, the index rose by 0.3 points. Istat refers instead, in April, the index of producer prices of industrial products decreased by 0.7% from the previous month and by 4.1% against April 2015.

It stabilizes, after the initial descent, the change euro-dollar , with the currency of the old continent which exchanges around 1,114 greenbacks. Even the spread BTP-Bund stabilizes: the yield spread between Italian and German government bonds stood at 120 basis points, with the Italian title which makes 1.36% on secondary market. Meanwhile, the Treasury has awarded all the 5.5 billion euro of BTPs to 5:10 years with falling rates: the five-year average yield fell to 0 , 40% from 0.49% while the year bond fell to 1.42% dall’1,51%. Also assigned CCTeu maturing in 2023 for 2 billion at 0.53% rate.

As mentioned, commodities are weak: the oil is falling, with Brent – 0.49% to $ 49.08 a barrel, and WTI at -0.24% to $ 49.21 a barrel. L ‘ Gold has scored, in Asia, the ninth consecutive session downward, the longest streak of the year: the ingot is now on the threshold of $ 1,200 an ounce. Wall Street closed the session on Friday on maximum, filing a week rising markedly: the indexes had lurched when Yellen called “appropriate a rate hike in the coming months,” then you are relieved when traders have returned to look at the fundamentals of the economy growing. Today the US markets will be closed for the holiday of Memorial Day, so on the boards remain impressed the results on Friday: the Dow Jones rose 0.25%, to 17873.22 share leading to a 2.1% weekly performance , the best eighth ended March 18. The S & amp; P 500 added 0.43%, to 2099.06 share, and in the week, the increase was 2.3%, as supported by the closed March 4. The Nasdaq gained 0.65%, to 4933.50 share, for a weekly rise of 3.4%, the largest by February 19.