Spiragli positive for the Italian economy. In recent months, economic activity indicators showed “some encouraging sign, albeit in a context of uncertainty.” To take stock of a reboot when only hinted at is the Istat Annual Report 2016 on the situation of the country, presented this morning at the Queen’s Hall of Deputies in the presence of the head of state, Sergio Mattarella.
Breed: with the crisis emerged redistributive system criticality and productive
After a recession “long and deep, with no terms of comparison in history where the Mayor has witnessed in these 90 years, “Italy experiences” a first important moment of persistent growth albeit at low intensity “, said the chairman of Istat George Breed:” Compared to previous episodes of cyclical expansion of the economic recovery appears to be characterized by greater fragility”. To Raise the long crisis of recent years has given rise to “some critical issues relating to the effectiveness of redistributive system and the production system tightness.” Nevertheless, there are the “positive elements”, such as “maggiora sustainability of public debt, the ability to compete in foreign markets, the improvement of the situation of old people” and the main strategies that have “confirmed their importance, first of all the protective role human capital for individuals and more generally investment as key to recovery. “
a slight recovery industry Turnover
wide Shoulders and export the path of growth
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in this scenario, alternating indicators positively to others who are struggling to resume the path of growth to be hope is the industry’s turnover, which – says the Report – “it marked a positive cyclical increase in both January and February (+0.9 and +0.1 percent (…) thanks to the vibrancy of capital goods (+2.5 percent in February) and intermediate goods ( +1.2 percent). Signs of a possible recovery after years of great crisis also coming from industry orders up 0.7% in February, “thanks to the favorable trend recorded by the internal component (+1.6 percent).” The index of industrial production has also registered a “significant increase in January (+1.7 percent compared with the end of 2015), which was followed by a modest decrease (-0.6 percent) in February.” Some signs of recovery also comes from the construction sector, “in February, the index increased 0.3 percent; the average of the last three months the volume of production increased by 0.6 percent. “
Montecitorio- President Mattarella to the annual report ISTAT
Trust companies, trends stop and go from the beginning of 2016
That the recovery is “fragile”, as pointed out in his speech Raise illustration of the Istat report, this is also apparent from the figure – contradictory – on the business confidence registered by ‘ beginning of 2016, which shows a certain worsening entrepreneurs’ expectations. In the first months of the current year, the qualitative economic indicators have in fact shown “further signs of weakness, a continuation of the downturn that has affected all sectors, except for the services in the last quarter of 2015,” the report said . In April, however, “the climate of business confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator Istat, Iesi) recovered more than two points from the previous month, driven by the sharp rise in confidence in market services and construction, which was accompanied by a increase, albeit contained, in manufacturing; By contrast retail trade recorded a further drop after declining in March. “
Istat, how they change pensions
Welfare, Italy among the countries’ less effective “only Greece worse than us
the Italian system of social protection is among those European” one of the least effective. ” The substantial rejection of our welfare appears in the Annual Report pages Istat 2016 dedicated to social spending and social security. Accused particularly pension expenditure, which “compresses the rest of social transfers”, increasing the risk of poverty. In 2014 the rate of those at risk was reduced after the transfer of 5.3 points (from 24.7% to 19.4%) compared with a mean reduction of 8.9 points in the EU. Only in Greece the aid system is less efficient than in Italy.
Breed: instability and insecurity due to distribution disadvantages
In other words, Italy does enough to protect people from the risk of falling into poverty: the Italian system transfers (excluding pensions) does not seem to be able to counter the trend of steady depletion. “The increasing vulnerability of children – said Breed – is linked to parents’ difficulty in supporting the economic weight of the first stage of the family life cycle, following the gradual deterioration of labor market conditions. Instability and job insecurity, which mainly affect young people and women, are among the factors leading to the major distribution disadvantages. “
Between 1990 and 2010, income inequality growing
in Italy, underlines the Istat, the inequality in income distribution (measured by the Gini index on gross individual income from work) increased from 0.40 to 0.51 between 1990 and 2010; This is the highest increase among the countries for which data are available. The family income is a determining factor. The advantage of individuals with starting status “high” (ie to 14 years lived in home ownership and who had at least one parent with university and managerial profession education), compared to individuals who instead came from families of status “down” ( ie with parents as with education and low-level job and house for rent) is lower in France (37%) and Denmark (39%), while it is very strong in the UK (79%), in Italy ( 63%) and Spain (51%).
Jobs, now phase 2 of the Jobs act
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Jobs Act, strong appeal especially in SMEs
One of the chapters of the annual report presented today to the labor market, marked in recent years by various regulatory interventions aimed at its simplification. An analysis on the use of the contract to increasing protections Istat shows that the probability that the new permanent contracts involve entirely new employees (excluding the previous futures transformations) is higher for smaller companies : in fact amounted to 39.8% in the case of small (less than 50 employees), 28.9% in the case of medium-sized (50-249 employees) and drops to 21.4% among the large (250 or more workers) . In contrast, the probability that new fixed term are only of previous transformations futures contracts amounted to 19.6% for small enterprises, 22.1% for medium-sized and 25.6% in the case of large . For smaller firms, the contract at increasing protection seems to have stimulated new employment especially in those organizations that previously had not increased employees. The larger effect is also linked to the possibility that the new permanent contracts involve only new workers. In the case of medium and large enterprises, however, the contract to increasing protections accompanies a phase of strengthening, rather than the boot, an employment growth path. Also the situations in which new permanent contracts all relate to new workers are more likely to the united ‘already growing.
Minor, 19% live in poverty relative
the Istat report also highlights dramatically the situation of children in poverty, who have paid the highest price of the crisis serving a worsening of their condition as well than previous generations. The relative incidence of poverty for children, that between 1997 and 2011 fluctuated to values around 11-12%, reached 19% in 2014. In contrast, among the elderly, which in 1997 had a ‘ incidence of poverty by more than 5% higher than that of children, there has been a gradual improvement which continued until 2014 when the incidence among the elderly is 10 percentage points lower than that of younger people.
risk of poverty indicator after the transfers, and the difference between the risk of poverty indicator before and after transfers in some EU countries – 2005 and 2014, percentages (source: annual Report Istat 2016)
For children, highlights the Istat, the risk of being poor is associated, in the first place, the division geographic area of residence and level of education of the reference person in the family. Children of the South and those living in households headed by a person who has at most a primary school have, in fact, a relative about four times higher risk of poverty, respectively, than that of residents in the north and those living with a contact person at least graduated. The link between poverty and geographical breakdown has come loose over time, notes the report, also due to the presence of foreigners in the North.
“suspended identity” for many young foreigners
Despite the difficulties of the national economy, more and more foreign young people want to become Italian citizens, but still many children with a history of migration arrived in Italy you always feel foreign or have not chosen their identity. On the integration side of the young generation 2016 Istat report points out that the Italian citizenship is an aspiration shared by a growing number of young foreigners. Considering both minors who acquire Italian citizenship for transmission from parents both born in our country who choose to become Italian at the age of eighteen, you get to a number that from about 11,000 in 2011 rose to more than 50,000 in 2014. But beyond the formal citizenship feels Italian about 38% of foreign under18, 33% feels foreign, while just over 29% undecided. So “the identity suspension is therefore a matter for a significant slice of the boys with migration background who live in our country.”
Three years after graduation, only 72% of young people working (it was 77% in 1991)
Compared to twenty years ago nearly doubled youth that most of it has not seeking work after graduation, three years decided to continue studying. Also according to Istat, the graduates of 2015 have more chance of finding work if in your resume can boast Erasmus experience. Three years after graduation, in 1991, the employed graduates were 77.1%. This figure fell to 72% in 2015, year in which not seeking work approximately 12.5% of young graduates, almost twice those of 1991 (6.6%). The latter figure should be read – explain the researchers – along with the phenomenon of continuing training: in 2015, in fact, 78.7% of those who say they do not find work are engaged in doctoral, masters, internships or more courses graduation, when in 1991 the same figure was 59.7 percent.
Istat Employees in turmoil, skips meeting with the press
This year the presentation of the Annual Report Istat is marked by the employees of the state of agitation ‘national Institute of Statistics who yesterday occupied the data Dissemination Center “to ask the Government and Administration which is their determination in their opposition to the reimbursement of public research.” Protest forced the Mayor to cancel the usual meeting with the press to illustrate the content of the Annual Report. In the focus of the employees, in particular, the reform of public research to the Minister signed by the University and research institutions Stefania Giannini, “which destroys the future of search.”
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