The Fed approximates the rate hike, the dollar strengthens. EU markets weak – The Republic

MILAN – Hours 14:35. The Fed has approximated a possible rise in US interest rates already at the meeting next June, thus speeding up the strengthening of the dollar that was in place in recent sessions, driven by the good quality of macroeconomic data on the US economy. The minutes of the last meeting in Washington showed a firmer position than they thought markets: central bankers US is ready to touch up the cost of money, if the domestic economy will continue to grow and not from abroad risks will worsen present. Despite the latest test of the economy (inflation to industrial production) they had been exceeded by momentum, increasing the chances of an early rate hike, the last words of the Fed generated a shock in the markets: Fed Funds futures, tools that anticipate the probability of a change in monetary policy, now indicate a three chance of a rate rise in June. Until a few weeks ago they were at zero. For the July meeting, the chance now exceed 50%. “The minute the Fed showed that the desire of the bankers to raise rates in June exceeds expectations for action,” said the manager Mitsushige Akino Bloomberg . “The US economy is making as well enough to allow the Fed to raise rates. But the global economy is in decline, and investors have not yet certain that this increase will come.”

The Bloomberg graph shows the possibilities granted by the market in the upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Fed (in mid-June meeting). The blue line indicates the permanence in the range of 0.25-0.5% rate is still predominant, but down. Growing instead the (green) Option to climb to 0.5-0.75%.

The news from today by the US macro front have not been – to be honest – so exciting: after three consecutive increases, in the week ended May 14 the number of workers for the first time have applied to receive unemployment benefits in the United States stood in decline, after reaching the previous maximum in the eighth 15 months. Initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 278,000, but anlisti predicted a drop to 272,000. Under the estimates, the index of activity Philadelphia (-1.8), while the Chicago rose to +0.1.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, an indicator that measures the strength of the greenback versus major currencies, confirming the gains recorded yesterday, when he scored the biggest jump in six months. L ‘ € falls so $ 1.12 and 123 yen. In strengthening the Sterling , in the wake of the latest polls that deflate the threat of Brexit. The markets are now looking at the Financial G7 which starts tomorrow in Japan : expects, by Tokyo, a request for accommodating fiscal policy to combat economic stagnation that grips much of the globe. The G7 heads of state is scheduled for next week, also in Japan. By the ECB reports, meanwhile, shows that Frankfurt has focused on the implementation “of the additional measures decided at its meeting on March 10″: rate cut, maxi Tltro loans to banks, accelerating the Qe and purchase of bonds which are expected to start in June. “The focus – it says – which are geared to improve the transmission of monetary policy through the support of credit creation.”

should now be on the new series of Tltro and CSPP (purchase corporate bonds) In Europe the main lists still treat banner of weakness: Milan still managed to hold par, with the banking sector that is raising the price. well Saipem in ad wake of the merger between the French Technip and the American Fmc. London gives 1%, Paris 0.2% and Frankfurt (-0.6%) which significantly decreases Bayer confirmed the deal to buy Monsanto. In trouble the whole sector of European tourism, which was affected by the news of the plane’s disappearance Egyptair and the renewed terrorism fears. In France, the unemployment rate has stabilized below 10% in the first quarter stood at 9.9%, while 10.2% in the French territory that includes the countries overseas. In the euro zone meanwhile noted the decline in production in the construction sector: -0.9% compared to February, down 1.4% in the EU. Expands slightly the spread between BTP and German Bund: the spread stood at 133 points at the start of the financial markets compared to yesterday’s close of 131, with a ten-year yield rising to 1.53 %: the rise in yields is generalized to all eurozone bonds.

oil continued to fall in New York, where stock prices lose 1.87% in $ 47.29 a barrel. The downside of the commodity is a bit ‘generalized and is also affected by the strengthening of the greenback. Also prices of ‘ Gold are in fact declining: the metal for immediate delivery drops to $ 1,258 an ounce.

stable locking, in the morning, for the Stock Exchange Tokyo in the aftermath of the GDP data that showed Japanese growth above expectations: the Nikkei index rose to 16,646.66 points at + 0.01%. Closing just below parity for the Shanghai Stock Exchange , with the Composite Index at -0.02%. Yesterday’s session at Wall Street is over so uncertain, after passing through a downward diffusion of the Fed minutes which revealed tones more “hawk” of expectations. The words of the Central Bank have been transposed by investors, who had up to that point ignored the calls of some central governors not to be too optimistic about the continuation of an ultra-accommodative policy. After a dip in red, the Dow Jones has still recovered yielding just 0.02%, while the S & amp; P 500 gained 0.02% and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Today the macro agenda includes new applications for unemployment benefits, the manufacturing index of the Chicago Fed and Philadelphia and superindex of April.