Tuesday, May 24, 2016

UniCredit, the longest for Federico Ghizzoni day. Today the decisive Cda – Il Sole 24 Ore

The board convened for this afternoon the CEO of UniCredit will not come from resigning, but – given the circumstances – hardly there will be room for another epilogue. “Relations with the board are transparent, we will continue to work together until there is enough confidence,” he said yesterday Federico Ghizzoni. Aware but today that same confidence could be jeopardized if the board of directors will formalize somehow the message already emerged last Monday in the meeting in his office with some great partners, the step back (though not immediately) the manager will be inevitable, therefore, you can set in motion the succession.

“relations with the board are transparent, we will work together until there is enough confidence”

Federico Ghizzoni, CEO of Unicredit

With all the formal requirements of the Supervisory Board and the market: the decision of the appointments committee, the recruitment of a head hunter ( Korn Ferry on pole), the selection inside a large pink profiles.

the words of the CEO
Yesterday, the CEO was in Madrid for the inauguration of new branch of corporate and a series of institutional meetings. “Business as usual”, as pointed out to reporters that urging him on his frequent rumors of an impending changes at the top: “The situation is under control, otherwise I would not be here,” he chanted the manager.

face just a little ‘more drawn than usual, Ghizzoni – just coming from London and expected this morning in Milan – keen to point out that within the bank you go straight on their way, with him behind the wheel it does not provide for capital increases nor those assignments assumed by analysts who on Friday had boosted the title Unicredit (yesterday gliding back under 3 Euros, in decrease of 3%). But the pressure of shareholders remains strong, the discontent in some cases is high, and at the very end of the press conference held at the Madrid Stock Exchange, yesterday the directors with the email arrived with the summons for today.

What will happen? Ghizzoni does not mention it. But the impression is that the manager does not intend to introduce immediately resigned. matter of form but also of substance, in the eyes of Ghizzoni: if you really have a desire for what was expected discontinuities by shareholders a week ago, the advisers – the same people who three months ago, after the accounts in 2015, they had unanimously reaffirmed confidence the CEO – should take responsibility to formalize it, in answer on the subject. Only then the manager will announce his resignation, which will be applied – to this the availability of the manager seems full – in the manner and within the time that the Board deems appropriate. Probably it takes a few weeks: the path, in fact, must be credible in the eyes of the market and of the Supervisory Board, not favorable to the blitz and in general to unorthodox procedures.



Ghizzoni (UniCredit): “To work with a board of directors until there is enough confidence” – Board for Tuesday

As for the severance pay, a agreement is not yet to be found, but – given the forks taxes by the ECB – the room for maneuver does not seem particularly high. Because if there is a concept that shareholders, directors and managers repeat is that everything must be done “by mutual consent”.

So here after through advice the ball will go to appointments and governance committee, who will be responsible to choose an advisor: the next committee meeting is already scheduled for next Wednesday, but has not ruled out a lightning session, perhaps already tonight in the board valley.

As for the eligible candidates company already contacted these days, seem out of Spencer Stuart (side of the board for the last self-assessment) and Russell Reynolds (Assogestioni consultant) and then remain Egon Zehnder, the historic partner of the bank, or Korn Ferry who apparently favored.


If this is the situation, speculation about possible successors still seem premature, for increases and hypothetical assignments. Ghizzoni, as mentioned, has excluded them, but it is clear that the choice will touch the next CEO: the most qualified candidates currently remain Marco Morelli of Bofa-Merrill Lynch, Alberto Nagel Mediobanca and Jean-Pierre Moustier, former head of the UniCredit CIB . Vigilance requires that at least ten names end in each rose. It is not excluded that after the change of CEO is put into question the Presidency, with Lucrezia Reichlin considered in the running, along the same Ghizzoni according to the scheme identified by the shareholders a year ago.



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The market meanwhile remains on the qui vive, “The future financial strategies – signaled yesterday the ICBPI analysts a note to clients – will be better delineated once completed the management turnover, with the concrete possibility of a capital increase aimed at strengthening anticipated, compared to the timing foreseen by ‘ last industrial plan, the regulatory capital. In the event of a capital increase from 4 billion the common equity tier 1 phased-in would be raised to 11.5% expected in late Piano (2018), while, in the absence of disposals, would require an operation more consistent (10.8 billion) to bring the primary capital ratio close to the best practices (12.5 / 13%). “

THE UNICREDIT QUARTERLY
first quarter Results 2016 million euro

According to a mass screening at the point of Intermonte, the disposal of assets quoted as an alternative to the capital increase would allow UniCredit strengthening of capital ratios in the order of more than 250 basis points. There will be time.

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