Monday, May 23, 2016

IMF: the Italian recovery gets stronger but difficult a decline of debt this year – Il Sole 24 Ore

The International Monetary Fund Remodeling slightly higher to Italy’s growth estimates. For 2016, GDP is seen growing by 1.1% (and about 1.25 per cent in 2017-18), 0.1% more than calculated by the Institute of Washington last April in its World Economic Outlook. The findings of the final comment of the Fund’s staff at the end of his mission in Italy, where he has conducted its annual analysis. According to the Fund, however, the growth path undertaken by Italy ‘would mean a return to pre-crisis levels of production (2007) only in the mid-2020s. ”

The IMF recognizes that “the list of reforms,” ​​the Italian government “was awesome” in the institutional sector, the Pa, taxation, labor market and in the banking sector. But he adds that “it is essential that such efforts be extended and completed.” In particular, the IMF points out that the annual law on competition has not yet approved this year. Recalls the need to “align wages with productivity” and “modernize the system of collective bargaining, apliandone the scope for companies.”



the three recipes of the Fund to enhance growth

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IMF: continuous shooting, are nodes
the Italian economy “continues to recover from a deep and prolonged recession,” says the staff of the international Monetary Fund at the end of his mission in our country. He adds: “Thanks to exceptionally accommodative monetary policies, at favorable prices of raw materials, in a


 

fiscal policy to support growth and an improved confidence in the wake of efforts by the authorities in the field of comprehensive reforms, the economy grew by 0.8% in 2015 and continued to expand in the first quarter of 2016. ” . For the experts of Washington Institute, however, the challenges that remain are “significant” productivity growth and investment is “low”; the unemployment rate “remains above 11%, with particularly high levels in some regions and among young people”; the balance sheets of banks are holding back Npl ‘very high’ and a long judicial process; public debt has risen just under 133% of GDP, “a level that limits the fiscal space to respond to shocks.”



Here are the transcripts EU: Italy now satisfies the debt rule, occurs in November

IMF: Debt difficult to decline this year A decline
Italian debt already this year, “it is difficult,” said Rishi Goyal, representative of the international Monetary Fund, in the press conference at the end of the mission in Italy. According to Goyal, however, the debt is “near to undertake a descendant parables.” Taking advantage of low interest rates, says the IMF, fiscal policy “should remain anchored to an ambitious medium-term consolidation path, supported by pro-growth policies, to ensure a more consistent trajectory of reduction of the debt public. “

” Do not compromise sustainability pensions “
the Fund also warns about the need not to jeopardize the sustainability of the pension system. “The achievement of the budgetary targets and the creation of a margin to lower the still high tax wedge may require difficult policy choices significantly regarding possibly even the high levels of social spending and the introduction of a modern property tax. It is important not to jeopardize the sustainability of the pension system, “warns the IMF, recommending” a broadening of tax bases, including the rationalization of tax expenditures. ”



Tax wedge, cutting structural hypotheses on new employees

“With relaxation accounts 2016 close future risks’
According to the IMF it is also necessary” proceed more decisively with structural reforms, including in the field of taxation. ” And “unless the authorities do not succeed in boosting potential growth through the implementation of a major program of reform, the current relaxation of 2016 (in structural terms) would entail the risk of a future pro-cyclical fiscal tightening.”

“to the test banks, extra effort on Npl”
On the issue of bank loans, “non-performing loans seem to be stabilizing,” however, “the banks’ balance sheets are being challenged by the very high level of NPL ( “Non-performing loans”) and the excessive length of judicial proceedings. ” The IMF also states that “further steps should aim to reduce significantly in the medium term the current volume of impaired loans by lowering the cost of risk and improving operational efficiency.”



Visco: impaired loans at the turning point

“Protecting retail customers, more controls”
Speaking of further action needed to support the banking system and solve the problem of non-performing loans, particularly in the light of the new rules on the bail-in, the IMF also points out that “it is necessary to prevent illegal sales practices to retail customers, strengthening the system of legal protections and regulations, increasing the quality and ‘effective controls “.

Atlas Fund has helped financial stability
promoted the bankruptcy reform, in order to reduce credit collection times. It upgraded the fund Atlas to stabilize banks. The recent intervention of the private sector in support of bank recapitalization “has helped – said the report – financial stability, providing a window of opportunity to actively promote the various measures proposed by the authorities to ensure that the banking system can count on a more solid basis and that such actions do not end up weighing on the profitability of the participating banks. ”

The CNF to IMF: Need alternative systems to the jurisdiction
During a meeting with the representative of the International Monetary Fund, Jose M. Garrido, in Rome for the periodic review of the state of justice, the Bar Council has provided some indications today to achieve their goal of increased productivity of the Italian system. Among them: the promotion of alternative systems to the jurisdiction entrusted to lawyers, to lighten the load on courts and recover the essential efficiency, and availability to share changes of the civil trial that are not limited to the mere change of rules but to ensure a reasonable efficiency improvement expectations. During the meeting, it said in a note of the CNF has been paid particular attention to the reform of insolvency procedures and delicate joints, such as the alert procedures and assisted resolution of the crisis.

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