Istat: accelerates the GDP in the first quarter (+ 0.3%), good domestic demand – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published May 13, 2016 at 10:15 hours.
the last change is the May 13, 2016 at 11:06.

in the first quarter of 2016 the Italian GDP, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, is increased by 0.3% from the previous quarter and 1% from the first quarter of 2015. This was announced by the Mayor, according to preliminary estimates. It is a slight acceleration compared to the fourth quarter of 2015, which closed at + 0.2% (revised upwards with today’s estimate). The change gained for 2016 (ie the annual growth would be achieved in the presence of a short-term change anything in the remaining quarters of the year) amounted to + 0.6%. The estimate for the first quarter is in line with analysts’ forecasts, which showed, on average, an increase of just 0.3%. The first quarter of 2016, recalls the statistical office, has had two working days less than the previous quarter and the same number of working days compared to the first quarter of 2015.

Istat: good domestic demand, foreign component weighs
the cyclical increase in GDP in the first quarter of 2016, equal to + 0.3%, is the synthesis of an increase in value added in industry and services taken as a whole and a decline in agriculture. The precise Istat, adding that, on the demand side, there is a positive contribution to the national component (gross inventories) and a negative net foreign component.

The international comparison
In the same period the GDP increased in quarterly terms by 0.7% in Germany, 0.5% in France, 0.4% in the UK and 0.1% in the US. In trend terms, there was an increase of 2.1% in the UK, 1.9% in the US and 1.3% in France. Overall, the GDP of the euro area countries has marked an increase of 0.6% over the previous quarter and by 1.6% in comparison with the same quarter of 2015.

the downside risks of growth
in the month of May known, Istat had spoken of evolution “uncertain” in confidence and “risks of a slowdown in economic activity in the short term”, despite the positive signs “associated with the improvement in industrial production, the permanent consolidation of employment, reduction of unemployment and the growth of the purchasing power of households.”

During a recent hearing before the committees of the House Budget and Senate, the president of Istat George Breed had anticipated that the Italian GDP is expected to grow by 0.3% in both the first and the second quarter of 2016, “with a confidence interval of between +0.1 and + 0.5%.” And he stressed that “in the face of such forecasts to reach 1.2% as expected from Def, however, would require further acceleration in economic activity in the second half of the year.” In its last spring forecast, the EU Commission has revised down the growth of the GDP of Italy 2016: dal’1,4% predicted in February to +1.1%.

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