Thursday, June 23, 2016

Bags Up: the markets are betting that London will not leave the EU – The Republic

MILAN – On the day that the citizens of the UK go to the polls to decide on the permanence of Britain in the European Union, the ‘ stabilizes above 1.13 dollars and the Sterling update the highs for the year, only to retrace the end of the session. The markets have therefore decided to bet on the “ Remain “, with the stock exchanges that move upward. M ilan moves faster with other EU Squares, also supported by positive macroeconomic data: the Italian index closes in pink jersey with a +3, 71% and banks big sweep. Paris sale of 1.96%, Frankfurt 1.85% and London 1.23%. Overall, the price lists of the Old Continent add 192 billion capitalization (+ 2% index Stoxx 600). Among the titles featured at the Milan stands Banco Popolare following the successful closing of the increase of a billion-euro capital, an operation preparatory to the merger with BPM. Wall Street is moving in a positive: the closure of European stock exchanges, the Dow Jones rises by 1%, in line with the S & amp; P 500 and the Nasdaq added 1.2%.

Despite the odds of bookmakers have marked a decline in Brexit net to 26% from 43% in the last week, the experts are anxious waiting for the vote: the rating agency S & amp; P has made it clear that a ‘exit from the Union would lead to an immediate cut to the Aaa rating of the United Kingdom, the maximum allowed. The polls close at 22 British, but the first results will come by midnight with votes coming from Gibraltar. Investors, particularly since the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox, have returned to believe that the status quo will prevail and permanence Union, awarding the shares and the pound after the sudden collapse last month recorded an eighth banner of purchases. On the other hand the experts have no doubt: “If London will remain in the EU, the markets will recover quickly lost ground, otherwise you will get a long phase of uncertainty.” The scenario that more than any other race Exchanges fear. Even so, awaiting the results of the trading volumes remain low. In the field he has already descended the central banks, from the Federal Reserve to ECB : are ready to innondare new liquidity markets in the event of Brexit victory. Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi fear especially sharp fluctuations in currencies and for this they are ready to take action to limit the damage with an economic recovery that remains weak. “The ECB is ready to do anything” has already repeated Dragons, while in the US financial authorities have come together to develop a contingency plan.

in addition to Brexit the day is full of significant macroeconomic events (the agenda of the markets). In Frankfurt holding the General Council of the ECB. The indicators Markit reported a sharp jump in May manufacturing PMI of Germany, with a rise more than expected to 54.4 points (above 50 points is economic expansion). Rather weak indicating French industry, with SMEs in decline to 49.9 points. Also fell services. At the level of the eurozone, the manufacturing PMI index sharply to 52.6 points rooms, above the analysts’ consensus estimate (51.3). From Italy, Istat reports a positive trend for sales and industrial orders in April in the US, finally, new home sales in May were down 6%, less than the 9% estimated by analysts, while the economy has disappointed superindex expectations with a 0.2% fall in May.

in terms of raw materials, the price of oil is volatile in New York after a successful start, when they end the trading day in Europe WTI yields about 1% to $ 48.8 per barrel. L ‘ Gold is slightly down at $ 1,265 an ounce. L ‘ closed steady at $ 1.1344, while the retreat of the yen, defensive well, to 105.35 and 119.22 euro rate on the dollar is a further indication of the markets bet on Bremain. The Sterling folds slightly to $ 1.4789 to $ 1.4948 after having updated its maximum of 2016. The spread between Bund and BTP has dropped below 130 basis points on closing sitting, with the yield of ten-year Treasury of 1.39%.

in the morning, the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed up. The Nikkei index rose 1.07% to 16,238.35 points. Weak trade and falling yen. Last night, the American Stock Exchange has shown throughout his nervousness pending the outcome of the British referendum: the Dow Jones index is set back by 0.27% to 17,780 points, the Standard & amp; Poor’s 500 index 0.17% to 2,085 points and the Nasdaq 0.22% share in 4833. Also weighing on the indices were the energy and technology sectors, the first damaged by declines in the price of crude oil to a lower-than-expected decline in US stocks and the second disappointing budget estimates of Adobe and HP.

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