Referendum Brexit: surveys, bookmakers and scenarios after the vote – Investing Today

A new poll by Ipsos Mori, published in the London’s Evening Standard , confirms has emerged trend in recent weeks: the referendum on the Brexit , 53% would vote to leave the EU and 47% for staying. Because there is less than one week to vote, it seems increasingly difficult to turn the tide of the outcome. Therefore, the United Kingdom is about to leave the EU? The bookmakers do not believe and bet on the “Brexin” , or the London residence in the Community institutions. The likelihood of this happening would be for them by 73%. Considering that polls have proved unreliable in the country in recent years (Scotland independence referendum, elections in 2015) and that those who bet, he does it with his own money, does not mean they’re wrong, because 15% of voters, according to official surveys would still undecided and basically these are people more favorable to maintain the status quo.

(and read here http://www.investireoggi.it/attualita/deputata-inglese-uccisa-puzza-omicidio-sullaltare-della-ragion/ to assess the impact of the murder yesterday of the British Labour MP anti-Brexit)

Scenarios Brexit

The same FTSE 100 on the London Stock Exchange has yielded less than other European financial centers despite being the most affected by a possible Brexit: -3.7% in a month, when the Eurozone average losses were in the same period by 4.3%. It is true, however, that three quarters of the profits of companies listed in London are produced abroad, so the data could be affected by this “strangeness” of investors to national events.

What are the consequences from June 24 onwards, the victory of one or the opposite? We analyze the two main scenari.Vince the “Remain”:

1) The UK remains in the EU and brings a sigh of relief. The government of Prime Minister David Cameron is strengthened and the leadership of Boris Johnson among conservatives lose share, while the UKIP would remain high pressure of Nigel Farage to get the London divorce from Brussels. The country would retain a special status in the EU institutions, the protection of its autonomy, in particular, with respect to the integration ever closer union among the eurozone members;

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