The IMF warning: “With Brexit recession risk” – the Journal

While officially triggered the countdown to the referendum on Brexit set for June 23, the last alarm was done playing yesterday by the International Monetary Fund.

“Britain could slip into recession in 2017 if the EU decides to go out, “said the IMF. The pil English, in the scenario where the remains Gb EU, is expected to rise by 2.2%, continuing the trajectory going on for years. In the case of goodbye, though, the Fund outlines two possible scenarios: the first, with smaller consequences, estimates a 1.4 percent growth. The second, a 0.8 percent contraction. Compared to the baseline scenario outlined by the IMF, if the GDP goodbye English threatens a severe blow: 5.6% less than 2019. This is also because the “Great Britain is very important for some European economies, but in general terms the ‘ EU is more important to Britain than Britain it is for the EU “, adds the IMF. Recalling that the assets of the British financial sector represent 830% of GDP in 2014, or four times the weight they had in the seventies. And financial services generate 8% of the British national income, 50% more than the European average.

Of course, if Britain will opt for Brexit, France will be inflexible and the Council of ‘Europe of 28 June will demonstrate steadfastness, stressed yesterday, French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron. “Either you are in or you are out – Macron says Le Monde – if the British choose to go out, the Council of Europe will have to issue an ultimatum to London and our president will be very clear about it. It will not remain in ambiguity. The day after the exit from the EU there will be no French passport to British businesses. ” According Macron, if the English wish to keep access to the European market, will contribute to the budget of Brussels, like Switzerland and Norway. Moreover, even if the referendum in favor of the EU stay, the special status negotiations from London will be required by other European countries and must remain an extraordinary status.

And Italy? According to the IMF in our country, together with France, Germany and Spain, will be affected the possible divorce between Britain and Buxelles, but less so “than the European average.” The most vulnerable to trade links are Malta, Ireland, Cyprus, the Netherlands and Belgium. The consequences for the Italian economy is also intervened yesterday the finance minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, stressing that for us, “there are no specific problems” and that “the central banks have the task of dealing with the financial stability of the markets, so they a plan for that. “