MILAN – 15:30. The markets, emerging from a technical rebound after two days of post-referendum panic on Brexit, continue to bet on upcoming support by monetary authorities and European shares treat positively: Milan halls 1 , 9%, after gaining 3.3% the day before. Well the other of the Old Continent Bags: London halls of 2.2%, Paris 2.4% and Frankfurt advances by 1 , 7%. Positive start for Wall Street: the Dow Jones rises by 0.9%, the Nasdaq 1%.
Square Business the lights are focused on the credit industry , the true barometer of confidence in the Italian economy. Yesterday, at the end of the first day of the European Council’s work which also debated the closure Brexit (today), the Commission President Jean Claude Juncker has explicitly talked about the fact that Italy does not run the risk of a bank run: “We talked about banks this afternoon with Renzi – confirmed – and the risk to be avoided is that of a bank run. But for now this is not a danger to Italy.” Mario Draghi also pushed for “solving the problems of the banks.” The government works in contact with Brussels to make a possible derogation from the window to the Regulation on the bail-in (the involvement of investors in the rescue of the banks, experienced in Italy with the four institutes saved at the end of 2015) to intervene with the public stand in support of bank balance sheets, or through direct capital injections or – more likely – by strengthening the intervention of Atlas in solving the problem of suffering. A worry the markets, however, there is the German closing any possibility of government intervention: as reported by Bloomberg citing a source close to Berlin, the Credit Directive which includes bail-in can not be amended. By return, the same chancellor Angela Merkel said: “I believe that some flexibility in certain countries to promote growth has been granted. Looking especially to Italy, I can say that we have adopted different solutions, but we can not renegotiate every two years the banking industry rules. ” Words that have frozen some titles, with Ubi and UnipolSai suspended in the volatility auction. Keep an eye on Snam which approved its business plan.
in Asia has staged the biggest rise last week, with the index MSCI Asia Pacific (basket that summarizes the trend in Europe Bags) capable to recover nearly half of the losses suffered after the outcome of the British vote. On the other hand, the Japanese governor Haruhiko Kuroda was put on line and Mario Draghi said that he was ready to inject new resources into the system, if that were necessary, and the markets now indicate 2018 as the most likely date for the next rate hike by the Fed. Until a few weeks ago, he discussed whether the monetary tightening could come in June or July. According to the manager James Woods, “although central bankers are reassuring investors and are ready to support markets, it may be premature to change the general approach and become suddenly optimistic.” Agency Bloomberg says: “Probably we will continue to see a very pronounced volatility. We have to wait to see how it will develop the political situation in the UK” after Brexit.
Sterling , able yesterday to make some positions, holds the positions: the British currency is indicated in the Asian markets at $ 1.3399 compared to $ 1.3340 yesterday, and at least 31 years (1, 3121) touched in the days following the referendum. Shortly also moved the ‘ € , which is trading at $ 1.1085 (1.1065 the yesterday’s closing) and to 113.8 yen (from 113.71 yen). Meanwhile, continues to go down the spread between Bund and BTP, which benefits the action of the ECB and narrows below 150 basis points. The yield on Italian ten-year fell all’1,361%, below the levels of June 23 (the day of the referendum and on the eve of the news Brexit).
The macroeconomic surveys are opposed. In Germany , for example, has risen more than expected the consumer confidence for July: according to data measured by the Gfk index rose to 10.1 points from 9 , June 8, against expectations for a stable datum. Consumers see the economy “in good shape”, but the survey does not still suffering the blow of the British referendum (the agenda of the markets). The European index which measures consumer expectations (BCI) indicates a slight decrease of 0.04 points for the area with the single currency, reaching +0.22 share. The other indicator of the Commission, what Esi which measures the confidence of business and consumers in the economy, declined slightly by 0.2 points to 104.4, taking share in the euro area and in the EU is slightly improved by 0.1 point share 105.7. Male Italy’s performance, worse than other big countries. Again in Germany, inflation in June rose by 0.1% on May bringing the annual figure to 0.3%, but the expectations were for a 0.2% more growth on the month and 0.4% over-year. In the US, the PCE inflation in May reported a + 0.9% annual, under the Fed’s target. In May, American consumers spent more freely with a 0.4% increase in spending compared with a +0 , 2% of personal income.
in the morning, positive close to Tokyo Stock Exchange in the wake of expectations of economic support measures: the Nikkei-225 index finished the sitting rising 1.59% to 15,566 points. The oil engages the positive phase and is rising on international markets, for the second consecutive session. Crude WTI gains 0.79% to $ 48.23 a barrel. Also rose Brent has appreciated by 0.68% to $ 48.91 a barrel. They are expected this afternoon US stocks, with the consensus set for a decline of 2 million barrels. Although it has thus loosened the tension, even a safe haven as the ‘ Gold is growing (and this emphasizes that the situation is far from resolved): the precious metal earns 0 in the morning, 6% in the $ 1,320 area.
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