End of the European Council. Merkel speaks to reporters. Shortly after the President of the Council is located in front of reporters. He tries to defuse the controversy with a joke: “I smile because someone says Renzi thinks the banks. They are forced to do so, everything was going for less than lenders, banks know for my mortgage.” Never before has the bitter aftertaste of a motorcycle reveals the spirit of how the center of the post-Brexit threads there are banks. Especially Italian ones.
Angela Merkel has apparently slammed the door on to the Palazzo Chigi aspirations in the review of the bail-in rules. But in reality the Italian negotiation proceeds in Europe, even if uphill and in short steps, but with a goal: to have the possibility, in case of “real emergency”, to intervene to also state time with tools. Which can range from the recapitalization fund Atlante thanks to pension funds resources, insurance and a larger proportion of CDP (something like 5 billion) to deal with non-performing loans of banks, the hypothesis of ‘Padoan bond’ or a remake bond Monti used to MPS, up to the expectation of a role of CDP (perhaps with Treasury resources) in the recapitalization of any banks in crisis.
According reveals a government source, to worry more, especially in these turbulent days post-Brexit, is the situation of Monte dei Paschi di Siena. That already in the black Friday after the British referendum had touched a historic low of 0.39 euro, closing at -16.45% and today it closed at -2.87% by upgrading to new historic lows 0.3887 euro. The performance of the stock exchange did not help, either to other banking stocks (see Bper -5.45%, -5.23% Ubi, BPM -3.38%, Banco Popolare -3.24%) the words of Chancellor Angela Merkel has “frozen” Matteo Renzi said: “We have worked to give us common rules on resolution and recapitalization of banks, and we can not change the rules every two years.” It is no coincidence that, in the face of European equity indexes in recovery and on the maximum in mid-session, Milan has held with bank immediately after the release of a Bloomberg news that anticipated the no Germany any attempt to protect investors an Italian bank recapitalization plan.
At the moment, we think a government source, there is an imminent danger to Italian banks, as has been saying even Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. But the executive, and, primarily, the technical panel set up under the direction of Palazzo Chigi, involving Ministry of Economy and Economic Development, along with the Bank of Italy, and CDP, constantly monitors the market and is ready to intervene in case of need.
And that’s why, despite the niet arrived from Merkel on a review ‘flexible’ bail-in rules on state aid, and the call and response that is achieved with Matteo Renzi, the negotiations between Italy and the EU goes ahead. The hypotheses on the table are different: one speaks for example of hybrid recapitalization tools with public intervention, public guarantees on bank bonds, with interventions ‘equity’ of financial vehicles and the ‘non-performing loan management funds’. It is in particular on two points: easing of the rules of the so-called Brrd and bail-in in exceptional cases to allow government intervention in the rescue of the banks and the recapitalization of the fund Atlas, perhaps with a larger share of CDP.
What Merkel is referring strictly to the current rules of the ‘bail-in’, and with European rules on state aid when he says that should not be revised rules every two years, does not close the game. It appears that his words were referring mostly to an unwillingness to appeal by Italy or other countries, Article 108 of the EU Treaty allows the Council, at the request of a Member State, decide to ‘ unanimity that a state aid is compatible with the internal market in derogation from the rules “if exceptional circumstances justify it.” However, the possibility remains, and this would stand to Italian negotiations, to leverage on two provisions of the bail-in that already allow derogations. Article 44 of the European Directive on the resolution, in fact, indicates that “in exceptional circumstances, a resolution authority may exclude all or part of certain liabilities from the write-down or conversion powers”. And Article 32 leaves the door open to government guarantees to support the liquidity facilities provided by central banks, government guarantees on newly issued liabilities or an injection of own resources, or the purchase of equity instruments at terms and conditions “that does not confer an advantage.” Exemptions for which, in fact, need the ok from the Union, a ok “quote” that Italy is trying to cash in so that if you were to present an emergency situation, to intervene being sure not to run into a sharp slowdown from Brussels.
The second line of negotiations, that the Fund Atlante 2, the same Renzi said today: “The fund Atlas has given very valuable feedback and is in condition to be further capitalized.” As is explained , negotiation with Europe mainly concern the role of Cassa Depositi e prestiti, which currently participates in Atlas with half a billion. by agreeing with Europe, so that there are no state aid issues, one could assume a Fund Atlas 2 with a massive presence of CDP and help from insurance and pension funds. Although, thinks a government source, you should see how to use resources, those of the CDP, which still derive from postal savings. one hypothesis could be recapitalize CDP with Treasury funds for this operation. But, for this reason, would need a European passport.
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