Without Brexit, the world economy could enjoy a slight acceleration of growth than forecast in April, according to the IMF, thanks to an easing of the recession in two of the largest countries emerging, Brazil and Russia. The uncertainty caused by the British referendum on EU output has instead prompted the IMF economists in a filing with the estimates of the “World Economic Outlook” of three months ago. The world economy will grow by 3.1% this year, just like last year, and by 3.4% next year. In both cases the figures were revised downward by 0.1%, in the baseline scenario.
Lagarde: Italian banks, solutions in EU standards
the same reduction of the forecasts for Italy, as had already emerged in the report on the country published a few days ago: the economy will expand the 0, 9% in 2016 and 1% in 2017. the Italian growth is the lowest among the countries of the G-7 with the exception of Japan. The Fund insists that in Europe, and then in Italy, where the problem is particularly acute, must quickly be addressed vulnerabilities in the financial sector, especially banks.
“For the IMF in Italy, where the problem is particularly acute, must be quickly addressed the vulnerability of the banking sector”
Although the world economy has been better than expected in early 2016, supports the analysis of the Fund, the result of the vote in Britain, which surprised the financial markets, has meant that materialize a important downside risk. The uncertainty, according to the IMF, will have a negative impact on confidence and investment, including through its impact on the financial conditions and market sentiment in general. Of course, it is not clear at this point what will be the size of this state of uncertainty, which further complicates the task of making predictions, notes the IMF. The initial revision of the estimates are mainly concentrated on European countries (-0.2% in 2017 for the euro area, 0.4% for Germany, 0.2% for Spain).
Bank of Italy: Brexit with GDP growth under 1%
In the euro area, growth was higher than expected 2.2% in the first quarter, due to an increase in domestic demand, including investment, and would likely have led to an upward revision of the estimates without the Brexit impact. 2016 will close still slightly better (1.6%, against 1.5% forecast in April), with concentrated downward next year. The UK of course suffer the heaviest consequences: growth this year of 1.7%, has been retouched down by 0.2%, the next year, by 1.3%, cut by almost one percentage point.
the IMF outlines three alternative scenario, depending on how it will evolve negotiations between Great Britain and the European Union: in the most severe, global growth would drop to 2.8% in both the 2016, both in 2017, that of 1.4 and 1% developed countries (against a baseline scenario of 1.8% in both years).
He holds China, 6.6 and 6.2% respectively in 2016 and 2017, thanks to various stimulus measures launched by the authorities, but it could in turn be affected by a more marked slowdown in the expected in Europe. India, with 7.4% in both years, remains the largest economy with improved performance.
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