“Too soft Stress test The British and the most at risk in Germany” – BBC

L'economista Antonio Leaf

MILAN “I am absolutely light test. Because, in the worst case scenario, imagine a drop of only 2% of gross domestic product at the end of 2018. Compared to a growth trend of 5% over the next three years indicated in the baseline scenario. Here, the Italian banks in recent years have experienced worse. So if anything, the EBA analysis scares because certify that in case of systemic crisis are the German and British banks to be able to suffer more. ” Words and thoughts of Antonio Foglia, economist and banker, a director of the Bank of Lake Lugano, the private institution of family and headquartered in Lugano and branch offices in London and Milan.

have been soft ratings for not force many European banks to capital increases?
“I say that the authorities led by Enria has corrected the shot compared to two years ago. Imagine an adverse scenario very much in line with what Italy has lived for the past seven years. So nothing exceptional. Were stress tests that seem, on a superficial reading, penalize our banking system because it comes with a lower than average French coefficient of capitalization, Spanish, German and English. But this is because for these examinations we arrive at the end of a rough cycle, while for others all in all arrive at the end of a phase of growth. With nearly 200 billion euro of gross doubtful loans in the belly to our banks, because of lending policy rather generous, our institutions have already had to deal with capital increases and decreases in the Non-performing loans . Operations that are taking place on a large scale, with great speed and unavoidable losses in the financial statements. “

Montepaschi is burdened by non-performing loans, but it is not a report card too merciless?
“what I notice is that the MPS dossier is on the board of the European central Bank for a long time and therefore not dwell too much on the negative assessment of Cet 1. what I find surprising is the overall fall of 20% of the leverage ratio , the leverage of the banking sector, in case of an adverse scenario which, I repeat, it does not seem so unrealistic. “

How?
“I mean that some banks may not have the capital cushion needed to address major systemic shocks. Worse than the adverse scenario drawn by the EBA. The most worrying concerns the overall indebtedness of the European banking system. “

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July 30, 2016 (amendment July 30, 2016 | 21:42)

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