Italy, consumer and business confidence increased in July – Milano Finanza

It grows in Italy the confidence of households and businesses. This month, according to Istat, increases the climate index of consumer confidence from 110.2 to 111.3 on a monthly basis, above the Reuters consensus at 109.2. Also, the index related to businesses grows from 101.2 to 103.3, while the estimates gathered by Reuters stopped to 101.8. The forecasts refer to staff members, current and future of consumer confidence increased respectively from 103 to 105, from 108.2 to 109.1 and from 112.9 to 114.9, while the economic component showed a decrease from 131 , 7 to 130.1.

consumers’ views on the economic situation of the country are, however, worsened for the third consecutive month from -49 to -54, while expectations passing from -5 to -9. Also down judgment on price in the past 12 months from -26 to -31 and their expectations for the next 12 months from -20 to -30. Expectations on unemployment improved slightly, with the balance from 32 to 30.

Regarding businesses, the confidence climate rises in all areas: more markedly in buildings 121, 6 to 126.2 and services from 105.1 to 108.6, milder in manufacturing from 102.9 to 103.1 and in retail trade by 99.3 to 101.3. In manufacturing companies marginally improve production expectations from 9 to 10, while in construction improve assessments on orders from -30 to -24, while employment expectations remain stable at -9.

Even in services improve all components of the climate: increase in the balances of the judgments and expectations on the level of orders from 4 to 7 and 7a 9 respectively. The expectations for the economy improves, with the balance from 3 to 8. In the retail sector improve the opinions on current sales from 0 to 6, but worse expectations on future sales from 22 to 21; the balance on inventories from 17 to 16.

But “we must not be deceived by the general data,” says Massimiliano Dona, Secretary National Consumer Union (Unc) . “The estimates are still wavering.” Moreover, Dona emphasizes: “the economic climate worsens. It also aggravates the consumer opinion on the economic situation of the country, down for the third month in a row.” Only positives for the Unc are the judgments and expectations on the economic situation of the family, which recorded a slight improvement over June.

Then the real economic data show that the spending of household consumption, which in 2015 was finally rose 1% in the first quarter of 2016 was again blocked. Retail sales in May were down year on year both in value and in volume, both for food and for non-food. “The country, in short, is stopped”, is the conclusion of Dona.

In decrease, instead, the confidence of the German and French consumers. In Germany, the index for August down from 10.1 in July to 10 points, although the figure is slightly better than expected compiled by Reuters to 9.9. “Even German consumers were obviously affected by the decision of the British nationals to leave the EU,” said the analyst Gfk Ralf Buerkl, adding that a confirmation of this situation comes the weakening of expectations of economic growth and incomes. The German Ifo index, which measures the confidence of entrepreneurs country fell in July from 108.7 to 108.3 points compared with June.

Also Downhill index confidence of French consumers from 97 June to 96 points this month, in line with expectations. For the French statistics agency, Insee, this is the second consecutive monthly decline, after that last May the figure was at its lowest level in almost eight years. To weigh negatively are, in particular, consumer judgments about personal financial situation. It is also good to note, however, how much of the survey was collected before the bombing in Nice last July 14.