Friday, July 15, 2016

Bank of Italy: record debt at 2.241 billion. With Brexit growth below 1% – The Republic

MILAN – even salt the debt of public administration: in May recorded a record $ 2.2418 trillion, an increase of 10.9 billion compared to previous month. The growth of the absolute value, surveyed by Bank of Italy, comes together with new signs of weakness of the Italian economic recovery, which light up the alert on the possibility to bring down the ratio of debt to GDP, an objective necessity of retaining the first yes, but also expansion of the second which is the denominator. Instead, note Via Nazionale in his third economic bulletin of 2016, after the referendum on Brexit Italian growth “might be slightly less than 1% this year and around 1% next year”, a level in line with the recent IMF survey.

the dynamics of debt. “the increase”, the Bank of Italy in the ear known dedicated evolution of debt, “is due to the increase in Treasury cash equivalents (8 billion more on the current account of the Treasury, to the portion of EUR 72.7 billion at the end of May 2016), the requirement of the month (2.1 billion) and to the overall effect of scrap and bonus issue of revaluation of securities indexed to inflation and the depreciation of the euro (0.8 billion). ” Unpacking the data by sub-sectors, detailing even via Nazionale, “the central government debt increased by 10.5 billion and the local government of 0.4 billion, the debt of social security institutions remained essentially unchanged.”

Bank of Italy: record debt at 2.241  billion. With Brexit growth below 1%

tax revenue. From the note also shows the trend in tax revenues: in the month in question totaled 33.8 billion (31.0000000000 in the same month of 2015). “In the first five months of 2016, tax revenues were amounted to 152.3 billion, up 4.2 percent compared to those for the same period last year, net of certain accounting and temporal heterogeneity (regarding primarily the personal income tax, VAT, inheritance tax virtual stamp fees Rai), it can be estimated that the growth has been significantly lower. ” To this figure is added to that supplied by the MEF, which sees the tax and contributory revenue collection – the first five months of 2016 – up overall by 1.4% (+3,522 million euro) compared with the same period last year .

economic bulletin. In the second day of note, Bank of Italy recognizes that the unexpected outcome of Brexit has the weighting of the macroeconomic framework made it difficult. Stresses that Italy is less directly exposed than others to the economy of the United Kingdom, nevertheless, “the ‘any slowdown in commercial trade or a review of the investment plans of companies operating in the UK market may have a significant impact but it limited; growth may be slightly less than 1% this year and around 1% next year. ” In June, the Bank of Italy included a 1.1% this year and 1.2% next. Still says that “the risks could increase if from spreading tensions in financial markets, if emerged difficulties in the banking system, if the confidence of businesses and households would be affected. These risks can be countered by a strong response of monetary policy, macroprudential and budget and by the success of the European authorities in allaying fears about the cohesion of the Union “. As I have already said Visco Abi general meeting, for Italy Brexit could cost a negative impact on the GDP level of about a quarter of a percentage point, distributed during the 2016-18 triennium.



COUNTRIES Interchange comm. (1) Portfolio investment (2) Direct Investment (3)
commercial and financial relations among the major countries of the euro
and the United Kingdom (as a percentage of GDP)
EXPORT IMPORT ACTIVITIES ‘ LIABILITIES’ ACTIVITY ‘ LIABILITIES’
Italy 1.7 1, 1 3.9 6.8 1.3 2.2
France 2.5 1.9 11.1 12, 7 4.9 2.2
Germany 3, 4 2.1 6.5 8.8 2.8 0, 7
Spain 2.9 1.8 3, 2 7.2 6 1.7

source: Based on Bank of Italy, Eurostat and IMF (coordinated Direct Investment Survey, DCIS, and coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, CPIS). (1) Trade in goods and services in 2014. – (2) As at the end of the first half of 2015; data based on statistics reported by the holder of the country’s activities. – (3) As at the end of 2014; data based on statistics reported by Italy and, for the other countries of the area, from the UK.

The recovery continues to be driven against the household expenses, while the spring indicators They tell of a slowdown in GDP. He could not miss the reference to the framework of the Italian banks, for which the Bank of Italy recalls that “s is also considering the possibility for the State to intervene in the banking sector recapitalizations, temporarily as a precaution.” The report stresses that “this possibility is explicitly provided for by European standards with reference to the results of the stress tests, when fulfilling the objective of avoiding serious disruption of the economy and preserve financial stability.”

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