The International Monetary Fund includes Brexit effect in its estimates and cut the growth forecasts of the major world economies. According to data contained in a partial update of the World Economic Outlook, whose original draft was diramanta in April, “despite a better performance than expected earlier this year,” global growth for this year and next is expected to slow down on Following the referendum in Britain that “surprised the global financial markets”. The Washington Institute expects for this year a 3.1% overall, 0.1% less than in the spring calculations (in 2015 there was a + 3.1% in 2014 and a +3 , 4%), while in 2017 is expected to expand by 3.4% and not more than 3.5%.
As emphasized Maury Obstfeld, director of the research department of internazione Monetary Fund, the referendum of 23 June by which British voters have chosen the output of the United Kingdom by the European Union “adds downward pressure on the global economy at a time when growth was already low”, although in a context that gave signs of improvement. Until 22 June, the IMF was ready to improve the growth forecasts given that “in the first half of the year there was a stronger than expected growth in the eurozone and Japan and a partial recovery in commodity prices that has helped emerging economies and developing.
Obstfeld explains that “of course, the direct effects are greater in Europe, especially in the UK. Our forecast for other airlines have changed little from Brexit “with the real effects of the latter that” will emerge gradually over time, adding to political uncertainty and economic elements that could be resolved only after many months. “The director of the research department the Fund has also warned of a possible “amplified reaction of financial markets to adverse shocks.”
Mild filing of Italy’s economic growth rate: a decimal point in less since last April for both This year, for which an estimated 0.9% of GDP for 2017 is to + 1%. also weighing on the Bel Paese, in addition to the impact of the British referendum, even “the problems unresolved legacy of the European banking crisis, particularly on the Italian and Portuguese banks. “
Considerable downward revision of economic growth forecasts, however, for the United Kingdom. Now the institution of Washington predicts a 1.7% of the British GDP quest ‘ year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the estimates last April, but above a 1.3% downturn in 2017: in this case the forecast is 0.9 percentage points lower than in April. This is the largest downward revision including those made on the various countries, the IMF noted in the document, which certifies the wait to a significant weakening of domestic demand as a result of uncertainty. In any case, both quest0anno that next, the GDP of the United Kingdom will grow more than those of Germany, France and Italy.
Again due to the Brexit, the IMF estimates on the size of the euro area in 2017. While for the current year the IMF for eurozone indicates a growth rate of 1.6% against 1.5% estimated in April, for the higher than anticipated growth recorded in the first three months of the year, 2017 is predicted a reduction of 0.2% to + 1.4%. Among the major countries of the Eurozone, growth in Germany will be higher than expected in 2016 with GDP rising by 1.6% (+ 0.1% compared to April estimates) and will slow to 1.2% in 2017 (-0.4% compared to April). A similar trend in France, with a + 0.4% of GDP this year to 1.5% and a.
As regards non-EU economies, the IMF does not spare the United States, cutting the estimate of GDP this year by 0.2% to 2.2% after a weak first quarter. However, the institution calls for an acceleration of the US economy in the second quarter and the rest of the year, with the impact of Brexit that should be close to zero since the low interest rates and the gradual normalization of monetary policy should offset the negative effects such as the appreciation of the dollar and declines in confidence. Therefore, the Fund confirms the 2017 growth estimate to 2.5%.
In contrast China, which improves the short-term outlook, thanks to the recent support of the Beijing economy policies. The growth forecasts for this year, in fact, are revised upwards from 0.1% to 6.6% IMF, while remaining unchanged at 6.2% in the outlook for 2017. A contribution to help improve the cutting the benchmark lending rate five times in succession, the expansionary fiscal policy, increased infrastructure spending and accelerating credit growth.
the Fund estimates that the impact of the then Brexit Beijing’s economy will likely be limited, given the low financial and commercial exposure to the UK and the rapid response of the Chinese authorities to the challenges that threaten the established growth targets. However, please note that, “if the EU were significantly affected by Brexit, you might see adverse effects on China.”
similar fate for Brazil, where it seems that consumer and business confidence Brazilian has hit bottom and in the first quarter, the contraction in GDP was less dramatic than expected. Therefore, the IMF raised the estimates for both 2016 both 2017 of 0.5%, respectively -3.3% and + 0.5%. However, precise the Fund, “the uncertainties not only political but also at the level of Central Bank remain very present and weigh sull’outlook.”
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