two days from the finish finally takes the body, complete with figures (almost certainly) final, the rescue plan in two moves of the Monte dei Paschi di Siena. Who is preparing to sell at the bottom of Atlas (which resolved on the subject) 9.6 billion of non-performing loans to strike up a capital increase of five billion. Figure higher than expected in recent days, but over which – important news – there seems to be quell’assenso (for now strictly informal) ECB needed to proceed.
To put pen to paper the whole scheme we will have to wait until the last minute, ie next Friday day by which the extraordinary Board of Directors shall be convened that will have to approve, in addition to the floor, even the half-yearly accounts. But in the meantime the maximum frame within which to place the plan for the safety of Monte dei Paschi di Siena seems to really take shape (see below article here).
to lighten the bank of 9.7 billion net NPLs will take place in the yard of a capital increase up to 5 billion euro. It is a maximum amount and could be revised even lower, if the final price of the sale of NPL would allow to reduce losses. But the certainty is that, up to this figure, the investment banks are ready to ensure the success of the operation. Allowing the bank to present itself to the market fully cleaned, with Npl substantially halved (now amount to 47 billion). And with a Cet 1 that after the operation to strengthen, it would go well beyond the minimum 13% required by the Supervisory threshold.
the capital increase should be made entirely with private capital, without any public support: otherwise we would have to wait for the outcome the highly uncertain negotiations conducted by the Government with the European Commission, with the risk of having to open the chapter of subordinated bonds. In fact some uncertainty remains – just think that today Mps capitalizes about 800 million – but now is expected the launch of an underwriting syndicate that would see as lead advisors JpMporgan and Mediobanca, and who would participate among others (something twenty end-investor) also Bofa Merill Lynch, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and UBS. It will take a few more days, but in the meantime yesterday the board of directors of the Mount would formally entrusted with the mandate to JP Morgan and Mediobanca as leader.
at the end of a two-day board of directors, Monte dei Paschi yesterday he presented the guidelines of the plan to the ECB, which should be examined by the Supervisory Council tomorrow. Last night yet formally no extraordinary meeting had not been called (the first call on the agenda is scheduled for Thursday, 4) but the expectations are positive. Because the bank in the last hour would receive an informal agreement by the Supervisory Board to proceed in the direction of the launch of the plan.
certainly there that need to be addressed urgently. Friday, at 22, the European Banking Authority will lift the veil on the results of the stress tests that metterann out a capital fragility of banks in the face of an adverse macroeconomic scenario. It is true that there is no automatic link between a negative result to the tests by the European Banking Authority stress (which does not provide for a minimum level of capital to be met) and a demand for capital by the ECB. Frankfurt, among other things, yesterday reiterated that any capital deficiencies in adverse scenarios will help to define the indication of capital (capital guidance) is not binding in view of Srep 2016, without there being any recapitalization. But it is also true that Siena, on the Frankfurt request, has already announced intention to resolve in a definitive manner the knot of the suffering in the portfolio.
The plan is actually drawn. The bank cartolarizzerà about 10 billion net NPLs through an ad hoc vehicle (SPV). The riskiest tranche will be acquired by Atlas II vehicle to take over 1.7 billion euro of the previous subscription in addition to 500 million CDP / SGA and the same number of welfare funds. Other resources are also coming from other banks (Intesa and UniCredit together should put about 300 million already promised) and insurance for a total of about 3000000000 to 3.5000000000. The senior tranche, in anticipation of the launch of Gacs, will be covered by a bridge loan of about 6 billion issued by JP Morgan – annual term loan which should also expand to other subscribers – so as to allow the deconsolidation of bank non-performing loans and to make take the securitization, which is not fast .
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