General, the catchphrase that no one believes – Milano Finanza

the old catchphrase topical Back of the possible scaled to General through the control Mediobanca , which Generali is the largest shareholder with a stake of 13.465% (last Consob). director of the operation would be the French entrepreneur Vincent Bollore, who would have a plan to merge General with Axa .

But a climb to Mediobanca would be prevented by various regulatory constraints. In particular, Bolloré, which now has 5,029% of Mediobanca , can not increase its share over 10% without the authorization of the Bank of Italy. In addition, the operation could be hampered by the government that would welcome the move into foreign hands of the first Italian insurance group.

“We believe that such an operation encounters a number of legislative constraints, such as’ authorization from the Bank of Italy in Bolloré to rise over 10% in Mediobanca , but also statutory: syndicate pact of Mediobanca and lacks the necessary political support in order to succeed”, comment the Equita analysts (hold rating and target price to 16.2 euro confirmed the Generali ).

of course, “the speculation about an operation Axa -Generali are not new and reflect the interest of the French company for the Italian market. But we see the difficulty of regulatory and political order, even more so in light of the litigation that has recently opened between Vivendi and Mediaset “, agree the ICBPI analysts (neutral rating and target price to 9.2 euro confirmed on Mediobanca ) .

Other analysts believe unlikely, at the time, an acquisition of Generali by Axa , also for the fact that any of Mediobanca sellers of shares to Bolloré would Unicredit (with a share dell’8,697%) and Banca Mediolanum (3.343%), but both seem unwilling to alienate their holdings, at least not now. In particular, it seems difficult that Unicredit sell now with Mediobanca that is in your bag € 6.46 per share, while Unicredit is in charge of the participation to 9.7 euro per share: the operation would result in a heavy loss.

not by chance at the Milan stock the Generali is heated slightly (+ 2% yesterday and today + 0.75% to EUR 12.05), although among others Barclays now has raised its target price from 11 to 11,10 Euros (rating equal weight) after the accounts, does better Mediobanca (+ 3% yesterday and today + 1.97% to EUR 6.46), but it is supported with the upgrade of Banca Imi to add a buy (the price target lowered from 10.5 to 8 EUR).